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Post by jckrdu on Oct 26, 2017 17:00:08 GMT
So why the massive share price destruction in ADXS? It's either...
1) insiders with knowledge of bad news that hasn't been made public are selling in advance
2) the recently announced delays to some of their key projects/milestones (NEO Phase 1 start with Amgen, start of Phase 3 with Bristol, and delay submitting for cervical approval in Europe) when combined with current cash position (less than 1 year) and no clear guidance on when a partnership with non-dilutive funding will be announced... has triggered some institutional selling.
3) coordinated bear-raid to enable hedge funds with large short positions to cover their short positions at a lower pps. Short interest was over 10M shares in the August timeframe and has recently been reduced to about 7.5M shares short, so some folks have been covering. The bear-raid and short covering may have been triggered when it became apparent that the old CEO was going to be replaced with a new CEO with a new direction to close some partnerships, instead of going-it-alone like the prior CEO. (Note: Take a look a CALA who has a similar share structure as ADXS, and where Adage also had a position of about 10%... like they do in ADXS. CALA at one point ran to $30 (like ADXS), retraced to $2, and then 6 months later was trading at $17 after they announced a deal. Something similar for ADXS may be in the cards.)
IMO, either one of the above 3 are possible.
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Post by stargazer on Oct 27, 2017 3:48:02 GMT
So why the massive share price destruction in ADXS? It's either... 1) insiders with knowledge of bad news that hasn't been made public are selling in advance 2) the recently announced delays to some of their key projects/milestones (NEO Phase 1 start with Amgen, start of Phase 3 with Bristol, and delay submitting for cervical approval in Europe) when combined with current cash position (less than 1 year) and no clear guidance on when a partnership with non-dilutive funding will be announced... has triggered some institutional selling. 3) coordinated bear-raid to enable hedge funds with large short positions to cover their short positions at a lower pps. Short interest was over 10M shares in the August timeframe and has recently been reduced to about 7.5M shares short, so some folks have been covering. The bear-raid and short covering may have been triggered when it became apparent that the old CEO was going to be replaced with a new CEO with a new direction to close some partnerships, instead of going-it-alone like the prior CEO. (Note: Take a look a CALA who has a similar share structure as ADXS, and where Adage also had a position of about 10%... like they do in ADXS. CALA at one point ran to $30 (like ADXS), retraced to $2, and then 6 months later was trading at $17 after they announced a deal. Something similar for ADXS may be in the cards.) IMO, either one of the above 3 are possible. JCK, One humble request Can you please post your well thought out posts more oftener on this site?
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Post by jckrdu on Nov 1, 2017 15:14:26 GMT
Added more at $3.35.
Need some tailwinds from the XBI/IBB indexes as ADXS has been tracking to the overall sector the past few weeks.
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Post by harleyquinn on Nov 14, 2017 16:34:59 GMT
This is looking increasingly ugly...
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Post by stargazer on Nov 15, 2017 0:47:48 GMT
Added more at $3.35. Need some tailwinds from the XBI/IBB indexes as ADXS has been tracking to the overall sector the past few weeks. Added some more at 2.98.
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Post by lovie350z on Nov 16, 2017 16:08:31 GMT
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Post by selluwud on Dec 20, 2017 13:36:36 GMT
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Post by lcd on Dec 20, 2017 17:47:32 GMT
It certainly has moved the needle, which surprises me too. I feel like something else must be out there to move the pps up 17% or else we will see it come way back down this afternoon.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 21, 2017 4:11:01 GMT
It certainly has moved the needle, which surprises me too. I feel like something else must be out there to move the pps up 17% or else we will see it come way back down this afternoon. A bit of good news. The Aratana approval is a bit of validation of their platform, so the move on decent volume didn't surprise me too much... given how far ADXS has been beat down. But, like you alluded to, the market needs more to move higher. Today's financial release - while decent - still leaves them with a $20M per QTR burn rate. Pressure is somewhat off the immediate need for cash, but they'll need a licensing deal soon (next 3-5 months). Deal for AXAL in Europe is most likely scenario.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 29, 2017 15:28:40 GMT
Added a significant number of shares this morning at $2.86.
IMO, risk/reward is very attractive right now... among other things: 1) Tax loss selling pressure winding down, and 2) Buying pressure will start to build in anticipation of EMA filing in the first week of 2018, IMO.
GLTA.
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Post by morangie777 on Jan 1, 2018 14:33:43 GMT
Added a significant number of shares this morning at $2.86. IMO, risk/reward is very attractive right now... among other things: 1) Tax loss selling pressure winding down, and 2) Buying pressure will start to build in anticipation of EMA filing in the first week of 2018, IMO. A GLTA. Happy New Year and good luck with that. I admit i am worried about their large recurring expenses. Hope it works out for you.
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 7, 2018 16:12:11 GMT
Some thoughts on ADXS. I posted the below on IHUB in response to some posters complaining about the new CEO, Lombardo...
Too early to judge Lombardo, IMO. Building shareholder value isn't instantaneous. For those arguing that the shareprice has collapsed since he was named CEO, while that's true, I don't think we can blame that solely on Lombardo... as the act of replacing the CEO was bound to cause some level of uncertainty and selling pressure. Also, many other small cap bios took a beating in Oct/Nov/Dec last year.
Looking ahead, Lombardo has had 6 months to develop the plan and decide on how the upcoming milestones/PRs will be announced. I'm expecting solid news and execution in 2018, which includes a series of well-orchestrated PR releases.
It'll be interesting to see how ADXS moves forward in the EU with AXAL. At the time of the EMA conditional approval submission, we should get clarity on how ADXS is moving forward; i.e. the "hybrid" approach or via a more traditional licensing/partnership deal.
IMO, the path ADXS chooses for AXAL will be impacted by the types of licening/partnership deals pharma has put on the table. IMO, if the terms offered to date (i.e. upfront cash) were not acceptable to the BOD/Lombardo, ADXS could (and should IMO) choose to move forward with the "hybrid" approach (where they can buy back the full rights to AXAL at a later date) to get the EMA conditional approval application submitted, and then negotiate with multiple companies afterwards for an AXAL/Dual deal for EU/US. Many paths forward exist... I don't think the BOD/Lombardo will sell EU AXAL rights via a low-ball upfront cash number. So, I won't be disappointed if the EMA submission does not come with a deal announcement, because that may be the smarter approach as ADXS moves through 2018.
However, if the hybrid approach is selected, Lombardo needs to make some more direct statements regarding the cash position, similar to what the ATHX CEO has recently stated to generate buying pressure, such as: Cash sufficient to last to X date (they've said this but its not enough), no intent to raise cash via an equity offering at this time, plan to use ATM facility to raise cash as needed, currently in partnership discussions with intent to close deal in 2018 to help address mid-term and longer-term cash needs.
Lastly, I think the PSA combo results with Merck will have a huge impact and be a big driver (one way or the other) in 2018. Hoping for positive combo data at ASCO
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Post by selluwud on Jan 25, 2018 13:41:11 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Jan 28, 2018 16:32:36 GMT
The ADXS annual meeting is in March. The proxy will include a request to increase the authorized shares from 65M to 95M. Some thoughts...
The proxies will be mailed 2 weeks from now on February 9th. With the stock trading at multi-year lows under $3, Lombardo and the BOD must know that some items on the proxy are at risk if they don't deliver something tangible over the next 10 trading days. IMO, I don't think the proxies get mailed on the 9th without tangible progress announced beforehand.
My bet is on Lombardo to deliver the following over the next 10 trading days: 1) EU submission, and 2) either a partnership with upfront cash, or more specific/positive clarity on the status of partnership discussions... similar to recent guidance provided by the ATHX CEO where recent guidance is that they're "in advanced discussions with multiple companies on multiple specific partnership proposals".
Unlike ADXS that hasn't provided any such guidance on the status of partnership discussions (other than that they're having "discussions") and has seen the pps erode as a result, language like the above has helped bolster/hold the pps of ATHX ...as folks wait for the deal announcement.
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Post by lcd on Feb 9, 2018 16:09:35 GMT
IMO, I don't think the proxies get mailed on the 9th without tangible progress announced beforehand. Unfortunately, no news from ADXS and today it hit a new 52 week low.
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Post by lovie350z on Feb 13, 2018 13:42:18 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 13, 2018 14:26:39 GMT
Some thoughts on today's submission news, fwiw... The bad news - No partnership announced. - I would have liked to hear more bullish commentary from Lombardo on cash position being ample to get to point of partnership announcement. The good news: - ADXS did not cave to a low-ball partnership. With the submission done and the clock now ticking, ADXS has more leverage to strike better partnership terms. - Many investors don't follow ADXS as closely as everyone here. Today's news will be digested and should bring more investors back into the stock. I'm not expecting any pps miracles on today's news, but IMO more $$$ will start flowing into the stock in the weeks/months ahead. - Expectation of partnership announcement at any time should start building interest. May see some profit taking in days after today's news from folks who recently bought-in at $2.50 - $2.90. After that selling pressure is exhausted, I hope we move back-up to the $4-$6 range.
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Post by selluwud on Feb 13, 2018 15:02:40 GMT
Some thoughts on today's submission news, fwiw... The bad news - No partnership announced. - I would have liked to hear more bullish commentary from Lombardo on cash position being ample to get to point of partnership announcement. The good news: - ADXS did not cave to a low-ball partnership. With the submission done and the clock now ticking, ADXS has more leverage to strike better partnership terms. - Many investors don't follow ADXS as closely as everyone here. Today's news will be digested and should bring more investors back into the stock. I'm not expecting any pps miracles on today's news, but IMO more $$$ will start flowing into the stock in the weeks/months ahead. - Expectation of partnership announcement at any time should start building interest. May see some profit taking in days after today's news from folks who recently bought-in at $2.50 - $2.90. After that selling pressure is exhausted, I hope we move back-up to the $4-$6 range. How long is the review process leading to approval. Any wild guesses?
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Post by lovie350z on Feb 13, 2018 15:09:16 GMT
Agree Jck, hopefully adxs get some kind of non dilutive funding before having to do a raise.
Hey Selluwud i think the process can take up to a year if i'm correct. Would of been nice if they had this submitted sometime last year.
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Post by jckrdu on Feb 13, 2018 15:30:55 GMT
Agree Jck, hopefully adxs get some kind of non dilutive funding before having to do a raise. Hey Selluwud i think the process can take up to a year if i'm correct. Would of been nice if they had this submitted sometime last year. Agree. The EMA review and hopefully approval can take up to 13 months. It can be done in as few as 6 months.
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