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Post by jckrdu on Feb 18, 2016 18:24:14 GMT
I'm waiting for the next quarterly conference call in late Feb or early March before adding more, as I agree their financial picture is cloudy.
At the last presentation, CEO stated they're in late stage discussions with potential partners for limb ischemia in Japan, and stated goal of partnering to raise capital so further dilution in 2016 wouldn't be needed. I plan to add if we see a pullback after latest financials are disclosed.
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Post by morangie777 on Feb 27, 2016 4:44:51 GMT
So they got their delisting notice, as expected. ill also wait for the next earnings call for a better understanding of their finances.
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Post by morangie777 on Mar 11, 2016 19:23:57 GMT
Nice move today 15%+, on top of moves up in the last days. I have been out of this stock, but no regrets, the money is doing well in other holdings. Still, what is going on, just anticipation of the earnings call next week, or has anything transpired? Personally I still feel that the call will disappoint when it comes to the Finances of this company, I was actually considering re-entry after the call and a following drop in PPS, but maybe - likely - I'm wrong. Good luck to everyone holding.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 11, 2016 20:08:32 GMT
Nice move today 15%+, on top of moves up in the last days. I have been out of this stock, but no regrets, the money is doing well in other holdings. Still, what is going on, just anticipation of the earnings call next week, or has anything transpired? Personally I still feel that the call will disappoint when it comes to the Finances of this company, I was actually considering re-entry after the call and a following drop in PPS, but maybe - likely - I'm wrong. Good luck to everyone holding. Huge volume today. Feels like some type of positive news is coming.
I'm still holding and will wait until Monday to see if there's news before the conference call on Tuesday the 15th.
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Post by johank on Mar 14, 2016 11:17:38 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 14, 2016 11:50:00 GMT
Finally. This one has been a long and sometimes painful hold.
I'm going to see what the pps does. Per CEO in prior conference call, he stated that if they got a partnership deal done, they wouldn't need to raise any additional capital in 2016. I'm going to see if he reaffirms that statement on tomorrow's conference call, as it could really run (shorts covering, institutions buying in) if the financial picture doesn't include any near term dilution, which now looks like the case.
Key financial aspects below where they just took in $25 million:
- Caladrius Sells 19.9% Equity Stake in PCT for $19.4 Million. - Licenses Cell Therapy Technology for Certain Asian Territories for $5.6 Million and Future Royalties. Key quote from CEO:
“We are delighted about this collaboration with a company of the stature and global reach of Hitachi Chemical as it represents a clear validation of the PCT business model, technology and know-how. Importantly, it now values our PCT business at approximately $100 million and provides non-dilutive capital that strengthens our financial position,” said David J. Mazzo, PhD, Chief Executive Officer of Caladrius.
CLBS has 55.5 million shares issued. Now that CLBS has an investment that values PCT at $100 million, that should get the pps back to the $1.80-ish level fairly soon. Note that's only the PCT business. CLBS has other clinical assets (diabetes and critical limb ischemia) that - theoretically - would be valued at $0 if the pps only hits $1.80.
All that said, I'm going to sit tight and see how the pps reacts. CLBS could run over $2 in the weeks/months ahead on this news, as institutions re-enter. May not get to that pps level in a single day.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 14, 2016 15:35:43 GMT
Added a little more at .98 on the pullback after the opening pop. Will wait to see what the CEO says on the financials tomorrow. At a $1 pps, market is valuing CLBS at only half of what the recent deal valued CLBS.
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Post by harleyquinn on Mar 15, 2016 14:09:24 GMT
And.. All the way back down.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Mar 15, 2016 16:59:50 GMT
This looks like an interesting opportunity in low .80s. Something tells me Hitachi didn't just buy 20% of their cell manufacturing division at 100% premium b/c earnings are going to disappoint tomorrow. I picked up some shares and gambling for a nice short term profit...possible daily double
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 15, 2016 17:02:42 GMT
And.. All the way back down.
Gap filled, but not all the way back down as it ran from .60 to .83 late last week, most likely on expectations of the upcoming Hitachi news.
I added a little more after the gap filled. Market waiting to see how the financials look at the earnings call tonight. If it becomes clear that more capital/dilution will be needed in 2016, we'll likely trend back down. But, good chance IMO that the financial picture will look positive with no further dilution needed in 2016. If that message is delivered, market will start looking forward and CLBS should start trending back up. I like the following....
- Hitachi investment (after taking a detailed look under the covers) values just the PCT business at $100M. Market valuation is lagging as current pps is trading at less than half that valuation of $45M (.83 pps X 55M shares) - CLBS is a revenue producing biotech. If they can demonstrate they can get to breakeven (while still funding clinical trials thru partnerships) by late 2016, it should start trending back up. - Critical limb ischemia partnership in Japan not priced into current pps or Hitachi/PCT deal - All they need is 1 big current customer to move forward with Phase 3 trials or commercialization and PCT revenue/earnings projections should jump. That's not priced in
IMO, the above 4 items will happen in 2016. I'm going to sit on my shares until they do.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 15, 2016 18:38:35 GMT
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Mar 15, 2016 19:30:32 GMT
doubt that's a very big deal...but every bit helps
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Post by morangie777 on Mar 15, 2016 20:01:52 GMT
Good luck everyone for the call today. I remain on the sidelines, but watching closely.
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Post by observingthechaos on Mar 15, 2016 20:34:14 GMT
Added more on the dip.
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 15, 2016 20:47:06 GMT
Negative reaction after hours due to - IMO - all the one time charges to close down the Melanoma trial.
Foundation is being set. I like where CLBS is headed. May take a little time to get there.
They're guiding for higher revenues and lower operating costs in 2016. Need to hear more details from management on margins, burn rate, and cash runway.
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Post by observingthechaos on Mar 15, 2016 21:16:46 GMT
Meh, was 10k shares, don't think too much of it at all
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Post by jckrdu on Mar 17, 2016 12:12:35 GMT
And.. All the way back down.
Gap filled, but not all the way back down as it ran from .60 to .83 late last week, most likely on expectations of the upcoming Hitachi news.
I added a little more after the gap filled. Market waiting to see how the financials look at the earnings call tonight. If it becomes clear that more capital/dilution will be needed in 2016, we'll likely trend back down. But, good chance IMO that the financial picture will look positive with no further dilution needed in 2016. If that message is delivered, market will start looking forward and CLBS should start trending back up. I like the following....
- Hitachi investment (after taking a detailed look under the covers) values just the PCT business at $100M. Market valuation is lagging as current pps is trading at less than half that valuation of $45M (.83 pps X 55M shares) - CLBS is a revenue producing biotech. If they can demonstrate they can get to breakeven (while still funding clinical trials thru partnerships) by late 2016, it should start trending back up. - Critical limb ischemia partnership in Japan not priced into current pps or Hitachi/PCT deal - All they need is 1 big current customer to move forward with Phase 3 trials or commercialization and PCT revenue/earnings projections should jump. That's not priced in
IMO, the above 4 items will happen in 2016. I'm going to sit on my shares until they do.
Regarding the bolded above, some news out today where upcoming presentations in Japan will specifically discuss CLI in Japan.
www.caladrius.com/press-release/march-conferences-2016/
Also, corporate presentation on their website was updated. CLI language updated on slides 3 and 23. Language updated to state "partnering discussions advancing".
www.caladrius.com/investors/overview/
Per the CEO during the conference call earlier this week, they submitted their CLI IND to the Japanese PMDA . They didn't PR the IND submission, but I'm sure they'll PR the IND approval. IMO, CLI IND approval and announcement of Japanese partner for CLI with at least $10M upfront cash is coming in the first half of 2016. When that happens, any remaining fear of dilution in 2016 should subside, and CLBS should start moving.
For now, looking for support to continue building at the .80ish level.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Mar 17, 2016 23:12:52 GMT
I read the background on this and it appears CLBS-12 is safe and effective for a subsection of CLI patients, particularly younger patients with TAO or collagen diseases that are unlikely to respond to bypass or endovascular methods. It's a relatively small patient population, so am I wrong in thinking this will not translate to large profits?
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Post by observingthechaos on Mar 18, 2016 3:08:36 GMT
I read the background on this and it appears CLBS-12 is safe and effective for a subsection of CLI patients, particularly younger patients with TAO or collagen diseases that are unlikely to respond to bypass or endovascular methods. It's a relatively small patient population, so am I wrong in thinking this will not translate to large profits? From celltrials.info/2015/12/20/conditional-approval/ Per Caladrius website www.caladrius.com/product-candidates/clbs12/No-Option Critical Limb Ischemia cases Incidence (Japan): ~2K – 8K per year*** So, maybe in the ball park of hundreds of millions of dollars to billions of dollars per year.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Mar 18, 2016 3:48:58 GMT
Thanks ob! The more I consider this company the more I like it! They have their finger in many lucrative pots. I don't see the potential reward as big as say ATHX, but with so many good opportunities available to them there is less risk. Even if the trials end up failing they can still do quite well from cell manufacture. Actually, hoping this trends down a bit and I will add more.
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