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Post by observingthechaos on Mar 18, 2016 5:10:47 GMT
Thanks ob! The more I consider this company the more I like it! They have their finger in many lucrative pots. I don't see the potential reward as big as say ATHX, but with so many good opportunities available to them there is less risk. Even if the trials end up failing they can still do quite well from cell manufacture. Actually, hoping this trends down a bit and I will add more. That's if we went at it alone not including any costs. You'll also need to factor in the terms of the partner agreement, so, could be a bit less.
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Post by morangie777 on Mar 18, 2016 19:01:20 GMT
I am still trying to get a better grasp on the financial situation and have been digging through the 10k for that purpose. I thought I'd post it here, to possibly hear different views. Please let me know if I am completely off with my deductions and estimations or am missing key items. Here is what I am taking out of the 10K and the latest developments in March. (quotes are italic) "Our net losses attributable to common stockholders for the years ended December 31, 2015 and December 31, 2014 were approximately $80.9 million and $54.9 million, respectively. As of December 31, 2015, our cash and cash equivalents were $20.3 million." "Net loss for the year ended December 31, 2015 was approximately $81.0 million compared to $55.5 million for the year ended December 31, 2014. Net loss for the year ended December 31, 2015 included the impact of two corporate decisions regarding the discontinuation of our CLBS10 and CLBS20 clinical development programs, and goodwill impairment related to these decisions. The net impact of these decisions increased the net loss in 2015 by $24.7 million. "
=> Excluding the one time impacts in 2015, net loss was 81 -24.7 = 56.3M
Cash, for simplicity adding up a total for 2016: Starting Balance + Hitachi deal received + Hitachi deal part 2 expected in 2016 + 1M of private placement March 2016. Subtracting 7M paid to Oxford as debt repayment in March 2016. Total Cash, estimated, for the full year 2016: 20.3 + 19.4 + 5.6 + 1 -7 = 39.3M
Also guided is an extension of the PCT facilities, I believe estimated at around 6M. Secondly a reduction in headcount, with I believe 1M estimated in severance packages. Uncertain how much the headcount reduction will save for the whole year 2016, let's assume that it pays for the 6M extension, so I disregard these two items. Bottom line:Historical net loss 56.3M vs Total Cash 2016 39.3M.
Company statement in 10K "We believe that the proceeds received in the Hitachi Transaction, along with our current cash, our revenue generating activities, and our access to funds under our agreement with Aspire Capital, will be sufficient to fund our operations for the next twelve months."
In November 2015, we entered into a common stock purchase agreement with Aspire Capital (the "Aspire Agreement"), whereby we can sell to Aspire Capital, subject to terms and conditions under the Aspire Agreement as well as Nasdaq rules, the lesser of (i) $30 million of Common Stock or (ii) the dollar value of approximately 11.0 million shares of Common Stock based on the market price of the Common Stock at the time of such sale as determined under the Purchase Agreement.
=> To me all that looks very much like that they are going to draw the max amount on Aspire (11M shares), and may possibly even initiate a follow up Aspire agreement at the end of the year.
On March 14, 2016, 59,030,599 shares of the registrant's common stock, par value 0.001 per share, were outstanding.
Again, just number crunching, I am not predicting where the PPS goes this year, but it seems very possible that Aspire draws will put an ongoing selling pressure on it during 2016.
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Post by harleyquinn on Mar 29, 2016 12:54:42 GMT
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Post by selluwud on Apr 18, 2016 12:09:33 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 18, 2016 12:13:27 GMT
Agree.
Not sure how much this will move the stock, as the CEO did verbally state that they had PMDA approval for CLI in his last presentation. But, this could generate more buying pressure as folks get in waiting for the partnership news, which should come sometime in the next few months, IMO.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Apr 18, 2016 16:49:08 GMT
Delisting risk here?
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Post by jckrdu on Apr 18, 2016 17:05:39 GMT
No. They'll do a reverse split if needed to maintain the needed bid price to stay listed.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Apr 18, 2016 21:54:53 GMT
oh yeah
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on May 6, 2016 20:42:01 GMT
any thought on conference call? sounds like we are close to japanese partnership and that they are forming very close ties with Hitatchi. very encouraging!
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Post by jckrdu on May 6, 2016 21:53:42 GMT
any thought on conference call? sounds like we are close to japanese partnership and that they are forming very close ties with Hitatchi. very encouraging! Agree. Good call.
I added more today, and will continue to add if CLBS continues to slide lower as I believe the CLI partnership news in Japan with a decent amount of upfront cash ($10M or so) is coming in the next few months, and will take the pps over $1.00... which is a 50% move from current levels. The CEO's comments indicate that there are multiple interested parties in the CLI program... sounds like Caladrius management is working to get the best deal.
The other major catalyst that I think is coming in 2016 is the Hitachi JV for Europe. The commentary indicates that the EU deal is moving along with Hitachi.
Their cash position is dramatically improving but they're still not out of the woods. Cash on-hand is now $25 million and they're projecting a slower cash burn for the rest of the year; cash used in operations is projected to be $17M to $20M for the rest of the year, so things are definitely much better, but still tight... but a $10M upfront payment from the CLI partner may address the near-term cash concerns in 2016. They have a $25M line of credit they can tap as well, so I'm not too concerned with any dilution at current pps levels.
The most exciting thing about CLBS is that the CEO stated that several of their customers with products in Phase 3 or pivotal Phase 2 trials expect to get approval to commercialize in 2017. The CEO mentioned Kite Pharma as an example. If just 1 of the customers report good Phase 3 or pivotal Phase 2 data in 2016, CLBS is likely to start moving up on expectations of much higher revenue in 2017. The CEO stated that they're ramping manufacturing capacity ($6M investment) in anticipation of having to support production of commercial products by mid-2017.
Liked that they maintained revenue growth of over 30%. Liked that they reported 17% margin. First time margin numbers were disclosed.
This company is turning the corner. PPS still at risk until CLI partnership is closed in Japan so the market can look past cash concerns and towards growing revenue in 2017.
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Post by morangie777 on May 7, 2016 2:07:54 GMT
I remain positive with regards to their strategy and the efforts underway to turn the ship around, but mid term I also remain cautious and negative with regards to their finances. I bet they will fully draw on the Aspire ATM, which would mean a dilution of 11M shares this year (of currently 56M outstanding.) For sure a new partnership and payment is a wildcard that can change things, but they are not in a strong position to negotiate excellent terms either. Not sure how much value i want to put into this chance. By contract, The first patients in the Diabetes trial are financed by Sanford, but later caladrius will have to pay the bill. I think from then the trial will move forward at a snails pace, unless the company raises much more capital, e.g. through the ATM. I stay out of this for the time being, but will keep an eye on the progress. If I miss the take off which i believe at some point in the future will take place, so be it. Good luck to all with this
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Post by jckrdu on May 7, 2016 12:03:13 GMT
I remain positive with regards to their strategy and the efforts underway to turn the ship around, but mid term I also remain cautious and negative with regards to their finances. I bet they will fully draw on the Aspire ATM, which would mean a dilution of 11M shares this year (of currently 56M outstanding.) For sure a new partnership and payment is a wildcard that can change things, but they are not in a strong position to negotiate excellent terms either. Not sure how much value i want to put into this chance. By contract, The first patients in the Diabetes trial are financed by Sanford, but later caladrius will have to pay the bill. I think from then the trial will move forward at a snails pace, unless the company raises much more capital, e.g. through the ATM. I stay out of this for the time being, but will keep an eye on the progress. If I miss the take off which i believe at some point in the future will take place, so be it. Good luck to all with this Still some risk as you've noted, especially with regard to cash, but some info & thoughts...
On the diabetes trial, the first part of the bolded above is correct, but the second part isn't entirely correct. Per the CEO, there will be a data readout in late 2016 or early 2017 on the first 18 patients treated (enrollment has been reported to be going faster than planned). That 18 patient interim data approach was baked into the trial design to de-risk the program. From there, per the CEO, the plan is to find an additional partner to fund the diabetes trial. In a recent conference call, he specifically stated that additional partnering discussions for the diabetes trial are underway. So if the interim data on the first 18 patients is good, the plan is to land another partner to fund the trial. If the data is bad, they'll likely pull the plug.
On the CLI trial, I think they're in a strong position to negotiate favorable terms. Their plan was to invest the time and money upfront to get the J-IND filed and approved by the PMDA. Both of those steps are now done. Per the CEO, they're in "advanced" discussions with multiple potential partners interested. The selected partner will have a program set-up for conditional approval/revenue in Japan if successful. I think those factors provide Caladrius significant leverage in negotiations, as many pharmas want to get programs going in Japan.
Cash position is the biggest concern, but with either the expansion of the Hitachi deal for the EU or the CLI deal in Japan (both have been guided to be coming), they could essentially solve the near-term cash issue, so that when 2017 comes and revenues ramp more significantly due to commercialization contracts as expected, PCT will be generating more cash for the company.
At a $43M market cap where Hitachi's investment recently valued just PCT at $100M, I like the risk/reward.
Footnote: They may need to reverse split the stock to get it over $1 sometime later this year. Proxy for June annual meeting included a term to allow the company to do the reverse at 1:2 or up to 1:10. So, anyone that doesn't like reverse splits should be aware of that possibility and think twice.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on May 8, 2016 15:57:48 GMT
I also like the risk/reward here. I think there is great long term potential, but I am not looking to be a long term holder. I think the share prices will rise quickly over $1 on volume for news of Japanese partner. B/c this stock really flies on volume! I probably will keep a certain amount of CLBS long term, but I think will take a lot off the table when we broach $1.
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Post by morangie777 on May 9, 2016 16:34:08 GMT
I hope the upcoming partnerships and finance situation play out as you say, jck. I'll keep a close eye on this one, from the side lines for now. good luck!
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on May 12, 2016 21:01:29 GMT
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Post by harleyquinn on May 19, 2016 14:39:26 GMT
Just popping by to say I am getting hammered here (down 50% from my initial entry point). I hope you optimists are right.
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Post by jckrdu on May 20, 2016 10:36:24 GMT
Just popping by to say I am getting hammered here (down 50% from my initial entry point). I hope you optimists are right. I'm still holding, but not adding at this time as IMO the most likely scenario is that the reverse split happens soon after the 6/22 annual shareholders meeting where the authorization to do the reverse split will be given.
I'll be looking to add around the time of the reverse split announcement (whenever that happens) as that usually creates some volatility. After the reverse split is done, high probability the CEO times it so he has some news lined up afterwards... hopefully either the Japanese CLI partnership news or the European JV news with Hitachi.
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Post by harleyquinn on May 26, 2016 12:23:38 GMT
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Post by jckrdu on May 27, 2016 20:24:14 GMT
Good news, but not enough meat to it.
Looks like people are expecting a reverse split in late June. Should be some opportunities as the expected reverse unfolds.
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dave
Junior Member
Posts: 87
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Post by dave on Jun 25, 2016 15:07:47 GMT
High volume friday... wonder if something is afoot
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