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Post by furbush87 on Aug 14, 2015 16:37:44 GMT
I did not initially think this stock worthy of its own thread, very speculative. After listening to the CC today, you need to take a serious look at it. They are a small digital mapping company that has 2 major deals in excess of $125M each, along with multiple other small deals. 20% institutional ownership, and a product that is in huge demand. They do 3D mapping and Geo-spatial data, helping insurance companies assess risk as well as infrastructure development for emerging Nations. I know most here are biotech only, but if you dabble in technology companies this one is well worth a long hard look.
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Post by furbush87 on Aug 14, 2015 16:53:01 GMT
This is an old article, however do to the nature of getting contracts completed with a Govt. all this information is still factually relevant. More importantly, the wait is over, they are now finalizing two deals, and have more in the works. Please dial +1-416-849-0833 and provide pass code 96757161 to listen to the rebroadcast. (for the CC, recommend listening to it prior to making a purchase) A good price to shoot for is under .45 right now. seekingalpha.com/article/1891771-intermap-ceo-the-opportunity-is-bigger-than-we-ever-imagined
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Post by furbush87 on Aug 14, 2015 20:59:22 GMT
This is an old article, however do to the nature of getting contracts completed with a Govt. all this information is still factually relevant. More importantly, the wait is over, they are now finalizing two deals, and have more in the works. Please dial +1-416-849-0833 and provide pass code 96757161 to listen to the rebroadcast. (for the CC, recommend listening to it prior to making a purchase) A good price to shoot for is under .45 right now. seekingalpha.com/article/1891771-intermap-ceo-the-opportunity-is-bigger-than-we-ever-imagined seekingalpha.com/article/3441326-intermap-technologies-itmsf-ceo-todd-oseth-on-q2-2015-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=5&p=qanda&l=lastTranscript from the CC. Highlights "So, to date you said that your competition is better at it, is that their software has the ability to do it better than yours or is it they have been better to implement or get to the client, in other words they have been able to close the deal better than you have? Todd Oseth - President and CEO Actually it is just they are more feature rich at this time. We have total access to all of them. In fact almost all of the clients that are out there, all those 2600, there are no close doors to us. " "Okay, may I just address the Vertex for one moment please, Vertex has accumulated approximately I believe 19.9% or 20% of the company Yes, it was. The another thing to remember when it comes to Vertex, I am just going to expand on that when it comes to Vertex, when Vertex stepped in the February timeframe and started providing debt to us that is definitely the definition of risk capital. And if you think about how much money they put in during the February, March, April Timeframe the amount of money they put in was very equivalent if not exceeding the market capital of the company. So theoretically –
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Post by biposter on Aug 31, 2015 21:08:25 GMT
Thanks, furbush, for sharing this stock pick. Looks very interesting. Wish I had paid attention when you first brought it up on BI mb almost two months ago (“I Got Lucky” thread on 7/10 in the $Other Stocks$ forum). Noticed your other pick two months ago, TPCS, has jumped from $0.06 to $0.23. Tried to do some basic DD, listening to ITMSF’s last E/R CC (intermap.com | Company/Press Releases: Aug. 13; you’ll need the Conf. ID#, not the pass code), reading all the SA articles, the last two CC transcripts on SA, company website, recent PRs, etc., and this might be a worth a nice spec. position. furbush shares more of his DD, not only here at BI mb, but also on YMB (not much MB dialogue on this one anywhere) and in the SA article comments. It’s technically a Canadian stock (TSE:IMP) based in CO, but trades on the OTC grey sheets in the U.S.: ITMSF. It’s trading at $0.52 with a ~50m M/C, so it’s a small company (but has been around for a long time). Try and read the SA articles (all very well researched, btw, and a very good read). If possible, listen to the 8/13 CC (esp. the Q&A at the end). >> First, let me present what I think is the biggest risk upfront -- that’s if the large $125M+ (~$175M contract, actually) SDI contract w/ the to-be-named country falls through b/c of political/funding complications (but seems unlikely at this point). And worst case, there’s a second huge contract about to close by the end of 2015 (and five to seven smaller U.S. company contracts by eoy, per mgmt.), so a sharp pps pullback in case the first deal falls through (could see a 50%+ pps drop if this were to happen), but eventual recovery and spike by the eoy w/ the other big contract, so you’ll make a decent return, at least, by eoy. Anyway, here are the main catalysts coming up (stated directly by the CEO, Todd Oseth, and the CFO, Rich Mohr, at the most recent E/R CC on 8/14/15) and they’re coming up quite soon: - by end of next month (Sept. 2015): large $125M+ (actually, ~$175M+) SDI gov't contract closes/PR announcement
- (me: I think it’s fair to say the pps jumps to $1.00 at closing, maybe higher)
- by end of this year: a 2nd huge $125M+ (prob. bigger) SDI gov't contract possibly closes (these are deals w/ int’l countries)
- by eoy, 5-7 InsitePro deals close (much smaller deals with companies here in the U.S.; not sure what size each deal might be -- $2M-$5M+? ...thoughts, furbush?)
- (me: So maybe min. $2+ pps by eoy, assuming both SDI deals & all InsitePro deals close)
- There is a current pipeline of $500+ million of vetted opportunities (so maybe a third yet-to-be-discussed mega-deal on the horizon), and prob. a total market opportunity of $1B+ annually (not directly stated by mgmt. but by analyst research and "contacts close to the company")
- Serious buyout candidate: maybe by competitor $DGI at ~$3+ pps (mgmt. did discuss in very general terms a buyout scenario, but with no specifics, of course)
At this point, any purchase in the high $0.40’s would be pretty good (mid-$0.40’s would be ideal, but maybe unlikely with the imminent huge catalyst, but with this overall market volatility, who knows...). The runup from $0.06 to $0.61 has already occurred, so now it’s like holding through P2 trial data release with much less risk (unless the $125M contract country pulls out last minute, but per mgmt. on last CC, probably unlikely, but do your DD) or even like closing a significant, imminent JV w/ serious upfront cash. Anyway, maybe worth a spec. position. Whatever happens, furbush, please continue to share your future picks/analysis. Appreciate it. (*rojo-dojo, yes, request to join your private Reddit/r/intermap message board. Thanks
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Post by biposter on Sept 4, 2015 21:24:25 GMT
Today, one of the analysts who was on last month’s CC said that there are two, not just one, of these very large ($175M+) SDI deals that should close by the end of this month, according to his sources. Supposedly, the reason this second mega-deal was never publicly disclosed/announced prior was because there was no linked material event (like the Letter of Award announced on 6/22 on the first SDI deal, which was material) and went straight into negotiations, and may actually close before the first one. (I’m assuming this deal is not the same one as the third huge SDI deal, which was explicitly mentioned by mgmt. on last CC, and is still scheduled to potentially close by the end of this year.)
Again, what’s the key risk? ….that one or both of these huge imminent deals fall through (or is at least postponed) due to political instability/financial complications during final negotiations. This seems unlikely at this stage, but this analyst projects an 80% chance of the deals successfully closing by Sept. 30.
Well, anyway, check out furbush’s links cuz could be worth some basic DD and at least a spec. position.
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Post by JHam on Sept 7, 2015 4:27:07 GMT
Today, one of the analysts who was on last month’s CC said that there are two, not just one, of these very large ($175M+) SDI deals that should close by the end of this month, according to his sources. Supposedly, the reason this second mega-deal was never publicly disclosed/announced prior was because there was no linked material event (like the Letter of Award announced on 6/22 on the first SDI deal, which was material) and went straight into negotiations, and may actually close before the first one. (I’m assuming this deal is not the same one as the third huge SDI deal, which was explicitly mentioned by mgmt. on last CC, and is still scheduled to potentially close by the end of this year.) Again, what’s the key risk? ….that one or both of these huge imminent deals fall through (or is at least postponed) due to political instability/financial complications during final negotiations. This seems unlikely at this stage, but this analyst projects an 80% chance of the deals successfully closing by Sept. 30. Well, anyway, check out furbush’s links cuz could be worth some basic DD and at least a spec. position. Thanks for all of the DD guys. I am trying to stay away from binary stocks, but so far from what I have read this looks interesting. Nothing really matters but whether or not these deals go through. Don't have to look at the float or current cash. Another binary situation, but the chances look good. I may put up a small bid this week.
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Post by JHam on Sept 8, 2015 13:00:32 GMT
Just gave a listen to the CC. Good stuff and obviously it is hard not to notice the overall exuberance in everyone's voice. They both basically say we have arrived and things are going to start happening NOW. I know it ran up from $.06 to the current pps after the $175M letter of award was announced. That is a huge jump, but I wonder why with that yet to be finalized plus the other mega contract which likely will happen, why it is still how wrong around a $50M market cap. What is keeping these future, almost certain to happen major catalysts, from being baked in now?
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Post by furbush87 on Sept 8, 2015 14:13:33 GMT
Just gave a listen to the CC. Good stuff and obviously it is hard not to notice the overall exuberance in everyone's voice. They both basically say we have arrived and things are going to start happening NOW. I know it ran up from $.06 to the current pps after the $175M letter of award was announced. That is a huge jump, but I wonder why with that yet to be finalized plus the other mega contract which likely will happen, why it is still how wrong around a $50M market cap. What is keeping these future, almost certain to happen major catalysts, from being baked in now? Jham, sorry been away from the board for a bit. Here is my opinion on why the price is not going up. 2 mega deals in the works we know because of the CC, both for some serious cash. However they have not closed a deal formerly. Any big money investor is going to look a this and know that the first deal is just a proof of concept, by waiting till that one closes you can eliminate virtually all risk, and still benefit greatly in the completion of other deals. BTW, the CC briefly indicated there was at least 1 more deal in advanced stages. The Country they are mapping is a landlocked country, this means every country on their border has to be notified and give permission for a highly technical aircraft with ground penetrating radar to fly around and over their borders. This would notify all these countries that a neighboring state was acquiring a huge advantage over them in infrastructure development. Producing more customers. Recently China reiterated their promise of $1Trillion in funding to African Nations for infrastructure. What better way to start than to map the Country and give them the ability to use that data for all their purposes. This company by the way is no longer a mapping company (they do have the largest mapping database in the World), they are a data company, capable of taking a 3D map, figuring out hazards, distances, great for telecom, flood insurance, etc. They have the 2nd largest insurer in the world as a client. If they are not acquired, they are going to be a massive organization soon. poisedtotriple.com/use this link to find 4 great articles, each with new information that will help you see what is going on.
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Post by JHam on Sept 8, 2015 14:52:45 GMT
Just gave a listen to the CC. Good stuff and obviously it is hard not to notice the overall exuberance in everyone's voice. They both basically say we have arrived and things are going to start happening NOW. I know it ran up from $.06 to the current pps after the $175M letter of award was announced. That is a huge jump, but I wonder why with that yet to be finalized plus the other mega contract which likely will happen, why it is still how wrong around a $50M market cap. What is keeping these future, almost certain to happen major catalysts, from being baked in now? Jham, sorry been away from the board for a bit. Here is my opinion on why the price is not going up. 2 mega deals in the works we know because of the CC, both for some serious cash. However they have not closed a deal formerly. Any big money investor is going to look a this and know that the first deal is just a proof of concept, by waiting till that one closes you can eliminate virtually all risk, and still benefit greatly in the completion of other deals. BTW, the CC briefly indicated there was at least 1 more deal in advanced stages. The Country they are mapping is a landlocked country, this means every country on their border has to be notified and give permission for a highly technical aircraft with ground penetrating radar to fly around and over their borders. This would notify all these countries that a neighboring state was acquiring a huge advantage over them in infrastructure development. Producing more customers. Recently China reiterated their promise of $1Trillion in funding to African Nations for infrastructure. What better way to start than to map the Country and give them the ability to use that data for all their purposes. This company by the way is no longer a mapping company (they do have the largest mapping database in the World), they are a data company, capable of taking a 3D map, figuring out hazards, distances, great for telecom, flood insurance, etc. They have the 2nd largest insurer in the world as a client. If they are not acquired, they are going to be a massive organization soon. poisedtotriple.com/use this link to find 4 great articles, each with new information that will help you see what is going on. Thanks for the response. The highlighted was what i was referring to. Even though they have not closed the deals formally, usually the market is forward looking so I am surprised there hasn't been more of a run-up since the call (aside from the huge run-up after the announcement in June of the letter of award). Thanks for the links to the articles. I had a day off today and actually spent it reading up on this company and read 3 of the 4 articles. Just opened a position at $.492. I bit higher than I was hoping for, but I have some cash on the sidelines if it dips back down before the end of the month. Thanks for the heads up on this one.
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Post by JHam on Sept 8, 2015 14:54:28 GMT
Actually my order filled at $.491, yay!
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Post by JHam on Sept 8, 2015 16:58:49 GMT
Just added a chunk at $.47.
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Post by furbush87 on Sept 8, 2015 17:38:03 GMT
Jham, sorry been away from the board for a bit. Here is my opinion on why the price is not going up. 2 mega deals in the works we know because of the CC, both for some serious cash. However they have not closed a deal formerly. Any big money investor is going to look a this and know that the first deal is just a proof of concept, by waiting till that one closes you can eliminate virtually all risk, and still benefit greatly in the completion of other deals. BTW, the CC briefly indicated there was at least 1 more deal in advanced stages. The Country they are mapping is a landlocked country, this means every country on their border has to be notified and give permission for a highly technical aircraft with ground penetrating radar to fly around and over their borders. This would notify all these countries that a neighboring state was acquiring a huge advantage over them in infrastructure development. Producing more customers. Recently China reiterated their promise of $1Trillion in funding to African Nations for infrastructure. What better way to start than to map the Country and give them the ability to use that data for all their purposes. This company by the way is no longer a mapping company (they do have the largest mapping database in the World), they are a data company, capable of taking a 3D map, figuring out hazards, distances, great for telecom, flood insurance, etc. They have the 2nd largest insurer in the world as a client. If they are not acquired, they are going to be a massive organization soon. poisedtotriple.com/use this link to find 4 great articles, each with new information that will help you see what is going on. Thanks for the response. The highlighted was what i was referring to. Even though they have not closed the deals formally, usually the market is forward looking so I am surprised there hasn't been more of a run-up since the call (aside from the huge run-up after the announcement in June of the letter of award). Thanks for the links to the articles. I had a day off today and actually spent it reading up on this company and read 3 of the 4 articles. Just opened a position at $.492. I bit higher than I was hoping for, but I have some cash on the sidelines if it dips back down before the end of the month. Thanks for the heads up on this one. So the Analyst Mark Gomes who wrote the article posted a comment on SA. Basically his statement that he believes the first deal will make the company worth $1, and the 2nd $1.50. He tends to be conservative on his analysis as many of the stocks he covers are either acquired, or go much higher than he calls for. So if you assign a 50% chance for the company to close each deal, the stock should be valued at or around $.75. I think the big reason it isn't is because they have had these deals in the works for almost 2 years and there is an element of "crying wolf". Which is unfair I think because management was saying "in the next 12 months" before, and now they are saying "this quarter" one is vague, the other looks very clear, especially when you have a letter of intent. I figure 80% positive one deal closes in 3 weeks, 90% it closes by EOY.
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Post by RLC on Sept 8, 2015 20:15:16 GMT
Ok... so you guys have peeked my interest here. I'm going to do some light reading tonight and look to open a small position tomorrow morning. Thanks for sharing Furbish!
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Post by JHam on Sept 9, 2015 1:43:52 GMT
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Post by JHam on Sept 10, 2015 5:09:40 GMT
The more I read up on this company, the more I think they are going to get bought out sooner than later. Small company, much smaller than competitors who are inferior in their ability to provide software infrastructure solutions, CEO who has a history of jumping around fixing s company and moving on to the next one. This blurb from the older SA article certainly leaves the door open to this happening:
If there are larger companies out there and you have unique solution they all need to offer, does that mean Intermap might end up part of a larger company?
Todd: I see incredible opportunity ahead for the company and I'm rallied around executing on it. We keep enhancing our solutions and building our technology. What we are building is unique in the industry and is extremely powerful technology. My focus is on monetizing these incredible assets through customer wins. But to answer your question, do I anticipate that what we are creating will be the envy of a larger company that could seek to acquire us? I do. That would make a lot of sense for them, innovation is the key to all businesses.
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Post by furbush87 on Sept 10, 2015 13:51:23 GMT
The more I read up on this company, the more I think they are going to get bought out sooner than later. Small company, much smaller than competitors who are inferior in their ability to provide software infrastructure solutions, CEO who has a history of jumping around fixing s company and moving on to the next one. This blurb from the older SA article certainly leaves the door open to this happening: If there are larger companies out there and you have unique solution they all need to offer, does that mean Intermap might end up part of a larger company?Todd: I see incredible opportunity ahead for the company and I'm rallied around executing on it. We keep enhancing our solutions and building our technology. What we are building is unique in the industry and is extremely powerful technology. My focus is on monetizing these incredible assets through customer wins. But to answer your question, do I anticipate that what we are creating will be the envy of a larger company that could seek to acquire us? I do. That would make a lot of sense for them, innovation is the key to all businesses.That is my thought as well. I believe somewhere after the first deal closing an offer will be made. The big clue to predict this would be a complete repayment of debt. I say this because the one big problem that Intermap has is they have about $12M in debt, most at 15-25% rates, all come due between Jan-March next year. So that is a lot of debt for a company that does not generate half of that in revenue let alone profit. The other issue is that one of those loans came with a clause saying that 17% of all gross revenue belongs to the lender for the rest of eternity. That of course was just a safety clause to help Vertex ensure they don't take a complete loss lending to a very high risk company (back in Jan, not as much now). Owning 20% of the company plus some warrants gives them a huge incentive not to hamper the companies growth by enforcing this, and will most likely reach a deal that changes the 17% revenue into shares or warrants. The point is that no one will buy a company that has to pay 17% of its gross revenue out, and that clause won't be renegotiated until the debt is paid off. I suspect all of this could happen at 1 time with Vertex, Intermap, and an acquirer sitting down and coming to 1 agreement to be acted upon all at once. But it may also happen in stages. Just my thoughts
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Post by biposter on Sept 22, 2015 21:46:44 GMT
Just a quick update on ITMSF’s $125M-$175M mega-deal. Three posters elsewhere (ITMSF IHub MB, SH MB, SA comments) claim that they contacted ITMSF’s I/R within the last few days, including one today. Supposedly, Cory Pala spoke with them and seems to have either confirmed or hinted positively that the deal is still scheduled to close by end of Sept. I guess the caveat is, when did I/R last speak directly w/ mgmt? Is Cory’s information current as of today? But anyway… here are the message posts: - “I spoke with Investor Relations at Intermap today... they expect the awarded SDI to finalize in September. And IF the deal is delayed, they do not expect it to fall through altogether. That is huge IMO. As far as the second deal, they still believe it will close by year end but mentioned that does not mean December 31. It could be a lot sooner. They also threw out Q1 2016 as a possibility. But the big take away here is the awarded SDI is still on target to close in September and any delay does not mean the deal is falling through.”
- (kuligka1, Seeking Alpha, 9/22 at 12:32pm)(this is probably Ken Kulig -- twitter handle @ken_Kulig)
- seekingalpha.com/article/3495636-intermap-multiple-deals-are-nearing-completion#comments_header
- "JUST SPOKE TO CORY YES THERE WILL BE AN ANNOUNCEMENT THIS MONTH. He thinks the stock still has place to move. Speaking to him it seeme he thought $1 pps is fairer value. Here ito hoping soon !!!”
- (dailin, StockHouse.com, 9/18)
- I just spoke with Cory Pala in investor relations… Even though we don't have any official news since the last conf call, I asked him if sentiment still remains high and he responded with "Yes, and hang in there". Sorry wish I had more to add”
- (Macgruber, IHub, 9/18) (Macgruber, I believe, is a member here on the BI mb, so this gives me more confidence that ITMSF I/R’s Cory Pala did indeed speak with these folks. If you click on the IHub link, just for some context, someone tried to post a false message claiming that the mega-contract closed last week, and Macgruber contacted I/R to get clarification.)
- investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=117081754
Anyway, I guess we’ll see. Looks like it’s just one deal, not two, that should close by the end of Q3, with the second deal likely to close in Q4. So, what’s the key risk? Assuming the truth of Ken Kulig’s SA comment today, it looks like *IF* there were to be a delay, it wouldn’t mean that the deal has fallen through, which is reassuring and puts a floor on the pps. Yet if Sept. passes with no PR confirming the closing of the deal, the pps could still take a hit. Looks like others have already played the runup and have taken profits and are currently out and actually hoping there’s a delay so that they can load up much cheaper. Anyway, maybe it’s better to take a 1/2 to 3/4 position now, and buy on the drop if there actually is a delay, which doesn’t seem likely at this point (Wouldn’t I/R at least attempt to temper expectations with just one week left in Q3 if literally everything wasn’t fully nailed down? But I guess it also depends also on how up-to-date I/R's info is). I hope Furbush doesn’t mind, but this was his response to Ken Kulig: - “That is in line with what I was expecting/thinking. At this point in time if they are still expecting it to close in 8 days, they are very confident and it would have to be something unusual that delayed it. The 2nd deal will get my interest after the first one closes. Till then, sounds very comfortable to me.” (S. Furbush, SA comments, 9/22 at 2:04pm)
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Post by furbush87 on Sept 24, 2015 13:22:03 GMT
I don't mind. Today's news solves the biggest problem that Intermap had which was only being able to offer flood analysis. With the addition of fire/wind/hail/etc. they now have the best program in the industry, I am suspicious that this new capability is one step towards the closing of the deal. I personally have some cash sitting on hand ready to put into Intermap if the deal does not close by the 30th, I have no intention of selling off any stock as I would hate to do so prior to the 30th only for them to actually close as promised. I think it is important to keep focused on the fact that a Govt contract at this stage is about as close to a sure thing as you can come across. The initial award of the contract can be delayed through an extensive appeals process, which I suspect is why it has taken 22 months to actually close the deal. However at this time the process is basically in a final legal review by the lawyers, my understanding is that this is either a 30 or 45 day process. So I would believe the the 30th is the final day, if the lawyers need to change something that would potentially delay things.
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Post by JHam on Sept 24, 2015 15:16:41 GMT
I don't mind. Today's news solves the biggest problem that Intermap had which was only being able to offer flood analysis. With the addition of fire/wind/hail/etc. they now have the best program in the industry, I am suspicious that this new capability is one step towards the closing of the deal. I personally have some cash sitting on hand ready to put into Intermap if the deal does not close by the 30th, I have no intention of selling off any stock as I would hate to do so prior to the 30th only for them to actually close as promised. I think it is important to keep focused on the fact that a Govt contract at this stage is about as close to a sure thing as you can come across. The initial award of the contract can be delayed through an extensive appeals process, which I suspect is why it has taken 22 months to actually close the deal. However at this time the process is basically in a final legal review by the lawyers, my understanding is that this is either a 30 or 45 day process. So I would believe the the 30th is the final day, if the lawyers need to change something that would potentially delay things. There was news today? Where can I find it?
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Post by Macgruber on Sept 24, 2015 15:21:55 GMT
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