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Post by furbush87 on Oct 7, 2015 21:18:17 GMT
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Post by JHam on Oct 8, 2015 2:05:17 GMT
Can't seem to get the link to work.
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Post by JHam on Oct 8, 2015 2:14:24 GMT
Thanks JHam. This is what I love about investing and why I wrote about this company. The information services industry has net margins of 13.78% and software systems and applications has 17.34% so the 17.5% royalty has more value than 100% ownership in those companies. They already own 100% of this company vis-a-vis the royalty. Your ownership interest as a shareholder is subordinate to them and is worth zero. You just don't know it. If they wanted to cash out they could just sell the royalty stream. Is it possible that they will restructure? Yes, it's possible but not very probable given what they have today is more valuable than 100% of the company. It just intrigues me that people would invest in a company that, as currently structured, has zero value for shareholders. The best you can hope for is the greater fool theory. When have you known "the greater fool theory" not to work in penny stocks We are obviously reading the royalty agreement differently. I read it as 17.5% of the net revenue, meaning if they bring in $100 Vertex gets $17.50 leaving Intermap $82.50 for themselves and shareholders. Regardless the 17.5% will have little value if Intermap is not allowed to grow and they continue to only bring in $10M a year in revenue (their margins by the way range from 50-90% depending on the product from what I have been told). Ultimately, this is a gamble on the deal being signed. If they don't it is dead money. furbush, That would be funny if you are right. "17.5% of net revenue", as it says in the deal actually does indicate what you say could be true. That what ever Intermap nets, Vertex gets 17.5% of. Could it really be that simple?
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Post by JHam on Oct 8, 2015 2:16:42 GMT
Can't seem to get the link to work. Got it to work. When you click the link it adds some numbers after "pdf". If you delete those numbers in the url it works.
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Post by JHam on Oct 8, 2015 2:21:46 GMT
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 12, 2015 0:32:56 GMT
The latest on my research. Intermap is a sub-contractor, or basically acts as such. When a country wants to install NSDI they hire a primary contractor/adviser, companies like Esri, Compass I.E., IGN France. They have to tender with the country for the bid, then the primary contractor picks what they want, this may be a tender process, but ultimately they pick what is best (they are not a sub-contractor, but act like one). So ITMSF isn't likely to be doing the primary role of funding, advising, etc. The nice thing is if this contract is set up like this, I can find the primary contractor and find what other projects are in the works. Could prove how much more is to come.
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Post by JHam on Oct 13, 2015 11:24:51 GMT
I had a nice long chat yesterday with CFO Richard Mohr on the phone yesterday. In particular I wanted clarity on the Vertex 17.5% royalty. I am not going to post the conversation here, but I'll just say that the way he explained how it works is very much in line with how I have been thinking, and how it has been written about prior by analysts such as Mark Gomes. He was not a fan of the JMY SA article and thought it was very misinformed. He is very open to taking calls from investors, so if anyone wants to hear it for themselves or have other questions, I'd recommend giving him a call.
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Post by JHam on Oct 13, 2015 12:34:41 GMT
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 13, 2015 20:17:59 GMT
If Ghana was landlocked this would fit perfectly. From Sept Ghana: National Spatial Development Framework (2015-2035) In order to address the challenges of spatial planning in the country, especially in the urban and peri urban areas, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, through the Land Administration Project (LAP 2), has provided funds for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) for the entire country, by the Town and Country Planning Department. The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years (i.e. from 2015-2035). In addition to the NSDF, the project has supported the completion of a new Land Use and Planning Bill, which is currently before Cabinet for consideration. These two key outputs of the project are expected to change the way we plan and develop our cities and towns going forward. Access the National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF):
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 14, 2015 0:12:06 GMT
If Ghana was landlocked this would fit perfectly. From Sept Ghana: National Spatial Development Framework (2015-2035) In order to address the challenges of spatial planning in the country, especially in the urban and peri urban areas, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, through the Land Administration Project (LAP 2), has provided funds for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) for the entire country, by the Town and Country Planning Department. The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years (i.e. from 2015-2035). In addition to the NSDF, the project has supported the completion of a new Land Use and Planning Bill, which is currently before Cabinet for consideration. These two key outputs of the project are expected to change the way we plan and develop our cities and towns going forward. Access the National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF): I am now very confident this is the correct deal. How long does it take for a Govt. to expand a contract?.....
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Post by JHam on Oct 14, 2015 4:42:06 GMT
If Ghana was landlocked this would fit perfectly. From Sept Ghana: National Spatial Development Framework (2015-2035) In order to address the challenges of spatial planning in the country, especially in the urban and peri urban areas, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, through the Land Administration Project (LAP 2), has provided funds for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) for the entire country, by the Town and Country Planning Department. The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years (i.e. from 2015-2035). In addition to the NSDF, the project has supported the completion of a new Land Use and Planning Bill, which is currently before Cabinet for consideration. These two key outputs of the project are expected to change the way we plan and develop our cities and towns going forward. Access the National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF): I am now very confident this is the correct deal. How long does it take for a Govt. to expand a contract?..... But as you said, it isn't landlocked so I don't know. Not sure how long it takes. Mohr reiterated with me on the phone that they are confident it will be finalized in the coming weeks.
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Post by JHam on Oct 14, 2015 10:28:29 GMT
Here is an article referencing IBISWorld's extensive report that came out earlier this year on the 5 sectors that don't get much attention but have "higher-than-usual profit margins". Coming in at #5 is "Urban Planning Software" at an average 36% profit margin. This is exactly what Intermap does. Much higher than the what was referenced in the SA article: www.thefiscaltimes.com/2015/03/09/5-Niche-Sectors-Very-Nice-Profit-Margins5. Urban Planning Software Average profit margin: 36 percent 2014 industry revenue: $1.7 billion Urban planning software includes computer programs for city and regional planning, topography modeling, and map analytics. Demand for these services is driven primarily by state and local governments, as well as private companies in the construction sector. Industry revenue is expected to grow to $1.9 billion this year, while average profit margins should increase to 39 percent by 2020, according to IBISWorld.
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 15, 2015 2:03:22 GMT
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Post by JHam on Oct 15, 2015 4:17:50 GMT
Interesting. Todd Oseth is following them too. Did the company ever say that the 1st contract company was landlocked? Or was that an assumption by Mark Gomes?
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Post by JHam on Oct 15, 2015 14:11:53 GMT
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Post by JHam on Oct 15, 2015 14:14:22 GMT
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 15, 2015 15:05:43 GMT
That just shows how much there is out there. I think Uzbekistan is the 2nd deal, nothing solid yet, but that is the next most likely IMO. Namibia is, I believe, the 3rd deal the inferred in the CC. I'm feeling fairly confident that it is Ghana for the 1st deal, I'm told they are the only Country on Todd Oseth's twitter.
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Post by biposter on Oct 16, 2015 6:29:16 GMT
If Ghana was landlocked this would fit perfectly. From Sept Ghana: National Spatial Development Framework (2015-2035) In order to address the challenges of spatial planning in the country, especially in the urban and peri urban areas, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, through the Land Administration Project (LAP 2), has provided funds for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) for the entire country, by the Town and Country Planning Department. The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years (i.e. from 2015-2035). In addition to the NSDF, the project has supported the completion of a new Land Use and Planning Bill, which is currently before Cabinet for consideration. These two key outputs of the project are expected to change the way we plan and develop our cities and towns going forward. Access the National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF): I am now very confident this is the correct deal. How long does it take for a Govt. to expand a contract?..... But as you said, it isn't landlocked so I don't know. Not sure how long it takes. Mohr reiterated with me on the phone that they are confident it will be finalized in the coming weeks. Furbush, JHam, all -- thanks for all the DD. JHam, thanks for sharing your conversation with CFO Rich Mohr. Good to hear what he had to say. I think it was just Mark Gomes who said he believes, according to his research, that it was a landlocked country. I can’t seem to find any Intermap execs saying this, but I could be mistaken. So Ghana might still be in play. Well, if Furbush is right and Ghana is the first mega-deal, this excerpt came from a public address at a public government event on 6/3/15 (a few weeks before the 6/22/15 LOA announcement) by Ghana’s Minister of Lands and Natural Resources: Here are some other other excerpts from his speech: - "As a developing country, Ghana relies primarily on Agriculture, Forestry, Mining and lately, oil, for the economic viability and the very livelihood of its citizenry. These activities are all land based, which together provide about 70 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)."
- "The long-term economic goal of the Government of Ghana is to develop an agriculture and industry driven economy. To achieve this goal, there is the need for an efficient land management and administration system to improve confidence among investors and provide greater security of tenure to all users and occupiers of land."
- "The 15 to 25 year land administration reform programme aims at providing an efficient land management system for food security, Human Settlement Planning, Spatial and Infrastructural Planning..."
- "The second phase of the Land reforms, LAP-2, continues to implement several initiatives including pilot customary boundary demarcation, establishment of new Customary Land Secretariats, development of a computerized land information system..."
- (And here’s the part Furbush quoted) "In order to address the challenges of spatial planning in the country, especially in the urban and peri urban areas, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, through the LAP, has provided funds for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) for the entire country, by the Town and Country Planning Department. The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years (i.e. from 2015-2035). In addition to the NSDF, the project has supported the completion of a new Land Use and Planning Bill, which is currently before Cabinet for consideration. These two key outputs of the project are expected to change the way we plan and develop our cities and towns going forward."
- (I included this excerpt b/c of his emphasis on fulfilling the building construction in a timely manner. This was a sod-cutting ceremony for the construction of a new gov’t building.) "In conclusion, Nananom, Ladies and Gentlemen, on behalf of the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, I wish to congratulate the Contractor, Messrs Jasoung Limited for winning the competitive bid to undertake the construction of the office complex. I appeal to the Contractor and the Consultant supervising the construction, to adhere strictly to the specifications and timelines of the contract. The Government, the Ministry and the people of Ghana look forward to the completion of this office in the 15 months as scheduled."
- "I will also like to take this opportunity to thank our Development Partners, the World Bank and the Department for Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development of Canada, for partnering us on this 15-25 year journey to bring our land administration system to international standards."
Well, if Ghana is it, this speech does have some interesting bits. Delivered a few weeks before the $125M LOA. He says 70% of Ghana’s GDP is based on agriculture, forestry, mining and oil, so they need efficient land management/administration to that end and to build confidence among investors. Funds have been provided for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework for the entire country (The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years, i.e., from 2015-2035). He appeals to the contractor “to adhere strictly to the specifications and timelines of the contract” so there appears to be the motivation and urgency to move forward in a timely manner. And his concluding remarks was most interesting. He closes by thanking their Development Partners, the World Bank, and the Dept. for Foreign Affairs, Trade & Development of Canada “for partnering us on this 15-25 year journey to bring our land administration system to international standards.” And Todd Oseth follows the Ghana Gov’t on Twitter (he also follows the U.S.-Africa Chamber of Commerce, and I didn’t see him following any other specific country’s gov’t). So it’ll be interesting to see how all this turns out. Even if it is Ghana, we still need to close this contract. (And keeping with Furbush’s reluctance elsewhere to disclose Ghana as the contracting gov’t -- if in fact it actually is Ghana -- let’s keep all this speculative info. here at BI mb.)
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 16, 2015 13:51:57 GMT
www.ppaghana.org/eoidetail.asp?EOI_ID=804 Do you hire the consultant after the letter of award, or before? By the way word is a milestone was hit yesterday. Might not mean anything, its 3rd or 4th hand info.
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 16, 2015 14:33:43 GMT
The role of a consultant A consultant role is much more layered than that of a contractor; consultants often multitask and handle more than one project at a time.
A consultant is often tasked with leading an initiative rather than waiting for specific direction. For example, instead of waiting to be asked what the status of a task is or what tasks are outstanding, the consultant provides a list of tasks, the status, and a schedule. Instead of doing just what the client requests, a consultant looks for other opportunities for improvement while doing the expected work.
Consultants aim to get an understanding of the overall scope and goals of a project, make sure that they understand the deliverables, and offer specific suggestions when it makes sense. And all of this is done relatively quickly without having a negative effect on productivity.
A consultant should provide an increase in the breadth and depth of technical skills, an improvement in analytical skills, and the ability to clearly and concisely communicate important information in a timely manner
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