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Post by JHam on Oct 16, 2015 14:39:11 GMT
www.ppaghana.org/eoidetail.asp?EOI_ID=804 Do you hire the consultant after the letter of award, or before? By the way word is a milestone was hit yesterday. Might not mean anything, its 3rd or 4th hand info. Can't bring up the link. Can you try it again?
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Post by JHam on Oct 16, 2015 14:48:28 GMT
But as you said, it isn't landlocked so I don't know. Not sure how long it takes. Mohr reiterated with me on the phone that they are confident it will be finalized in the coming weeks. Furbush, JHam, all -- thanks for all the DD. JHam, thanks for sharing your conversation with CFO Rich Mohr. Good to hear what he had to say. I think it was just Mark Gomes who said he believes, according to his research, that it was a landlocked country. I can’t seem to find any Intermap execs saying this, but I could be mistaken. So Ghana might still be in play. Well, if Furbush is right and Ghana is the first mega-deal, this excerpt came from a public address at a public government event on 6/3/15 (a few weeks before the 6/22/15 LOA announcement) by Ghana’s Minister of Lands and Natural Resources: Here are some other other excerpts from his speech: - "As a developing country, Ghana relies primarily on Agriculture, Forestry, Mining and lately, oil, for the economic viability and the very livelihood of its citizenry. These activities are all land based, which together provide about 70 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP)."
- "The long-term economic goal of the Government of Ghana is to develop an agriculture and industry driven economy. To achieve this goal, there is the need for an efficient land management and administration system to improve confidence among investors and provide greater security of tenure to all users and occupiers of land."
- "The 15 to 25 year land administration reform programme aims at providing an efficient land management system for food security, Human Settlement Planning, Spatial and Infrastructural Planning..."
- "The second phase of the Land reforms, LAP-2, continues to implement several initiatives including pilot customary boundary demarcation, establishment of new Customary Land Secretariats, development of a computerized land information system..."
- (And here’s the part Furbush quoted) "In order to address the challenges of spatial planning in the country, especially in the urban and peri urban areas, the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, through the LAP, has provided funds for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework (NSDF) for the entire country, by the Town and Country Planning Department. The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years (i.e. from 2015-2035). In addition to the NSDF, the project has supported the completion of a new Land Use and Planning Bill, which is currently before Cabinet for consideration. These two key outputs of the project are expected to change the way we plan and develop our cities and towns going forward."
- (I included this excerpt b/c of his emphasis on fulfilling the building construction in a timely manner. This was a sod-cutting ceremony for the construction of a new gov’t building.) "In conclusion, Nananom, Ladies and Gentlemen, on behalf of the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, I wish to congratulate the Contractor, Messrs Jasoung Limited for winning the competitive bid to undertake the construction of the office complex. I appeal to the Contractor and the Consultant supervising the construction, to adhere strictly to the specifications and timelines of the contract. The Government, the Ministry and the people of Ghana look forward to the completion of this office in the 15 months as scheduled."
- "I will also like to take this opportunity to thank our Development Partners, the World Bank and the Department for Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development of Canada, for partnering us on this 15-25 year journey to bring our land administration system to international standards."
Well, if Ghana is it, this speech does have some interesting bits. Delivered a few weeks before the $125M LOA. He says 70% of Ghana’s GDP is based on agriculture, forestry, mining and oil, so they need efficient land management/administration to that end and to build confidence among investors. Funds have been provided for the development of a National Spatial Development Framework for the entire country (The NSDF provides the spatial framework for the development of the country for the next 20 years, i.e., from 2015-2035). He appeals to the contractor “to adhere strictly to the specifications and timelines of the contract” so there appears to be the motivation and urgency to move forward in a timely manner. And his concluding remarks was most interesting. He closes by thanking their Development Partners, the World Bank, and the Dept. for Foreign Affairs, Trade & Development of Canada “for partnering us on this 15-25 year journey to bring our land administration system to international standards.” And Todd Oseth follows the Ghana Gov’t on Twitter (he also follows the U.S.-Africa Chamber of Commerce, and I didn’t see him following any other specific country’s gov’t). So it’ll be interesting to see how all this turns out. Even if it is Ghana, we still need to close this contract. (And keeping with Furbush’s reluctance elsewhere to disclose Ghana as the contracting gov’t -- if in fact it actually is Ghana -- let’s keep all this speculative info. here at BI mb.) Thanks for the post bioposter. Good stuff. Ghana surely seems like the logical bet at this point when connecting all the dots. It doesn't matter to me which country it is, as long as the deal gets finalized. I agree about the "landlocked" country comment coming from Mark Gomes and not management. I have gone over the last cc transcripts and interviews with Todd Oseth that I previously read and can't find it anywhere.
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 16, 2015 14:54:10 GMT
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Post by JHam on Oct 16, 2015 14:55:17 GMT
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Post by JHam on Oct 16, 2015 15:18:25 GMT
By the way, I added a nice chunk at $.38 the other day. I did it after talking to Mohr and listening to him explain 1) How high the margins really are 2) Verifying that with the IBISWorld report that I posted on the last page 3) Learning more about the Vertex 17.5% royalty, why it is there, and how he expects it to be negotiated out (and approved by shareholders), and 4) Feeling confident that the only real risk is that these contracts close. Which I feel strongly is just a matter of if, but when.
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 16, 2015 18:56:13 GMT
Yesterday Ghana took out a loan for $33m (c48m July 4th, and c77M yesterday). If that was the "milestone" that I was told about, that would indicate 2 things, 1 the deal will close early next week, and 2 it is for $16M more than originally announced. IMO.
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Post by furbush87 on Oct 18, 2015 22:39:27 GMT
Not my number 1 pick for the 2nd deal, but....http://www.qna.org.qa/en-us/News/15101610490014/World-Bank-Grants-Additional-90-Million-For-Modernization-of-Land-Management-Systems-in-Turkey I lean more towards Uzbekistan, Algeria, or Albania. With runner ups of Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. For the full shotgun approach, Jordan, and Nigeria. Basically, I haven't been able to nail deal 2 down, but all of those are strong possibilities. Ultimately, once the first deal closes, the identity of the 2nd deal becomes irrelevant in my mind.
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Post by JHam on Oct 19, 2015 1:27:52 GMT
Not my number 1 pick for the 2nd deal, but....http://www.qna.org.qa/en-us/News/15101610490014/World-Bank-Grants-Additional-90-Million-For-Modernization-of-Land-Management-Systems-in-Turkey I lean more towards Uzbekistan, Algeria, or Albania. With runner ups of Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. For the full shotgun approach, Jordan, and Nigeria. Basically, I haven't been able to nail deal 2 down, but all of those are strong possibilities. Ultimately, once the first deal closes, the identity of the 2nd deal becomes irrelevant in my mind. As long as they have the money and want to make a deal with Intermap I don't care which it is
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Post by JHam on Oct 19, 2015 14:22:31 GMT
Up pretty good right now on heavier than normal volume for the first hour of trading. It will probably give it all back by the end of the day though.
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Post by JHam on Nov 3, 2015 6:44:58 GMT
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Post by mrpeanutbutter on Nov 6, 2015 17:06:24 GMT
Morning fellas, I like how this thread evolved. Created an Account to jump on in. I too investigated Ghana (without knowledge of this thread) and am 50/50 on if it can be with them. The reason for the indecision is due to the mess in their ministry of finance, and because that NSDF paper they have (I've read the entire thing) doesn't at all mention disaster risk or flood risk management! However, using reference to this link: www.ghanalap.gov.gh/files/NSDF-For-Ghana.pdf , the NSDF was at the time of publication, before Cabinet which needed to approve it to then go before the President. Perhaps the milestone referred to was that it passed through Cabinet? A couple days after that opst, the World Bank President travelled to Ghana to meet the Pres and the Finance Minister, at the same time the World Bank guaranteed $400M in debt, the max they could do for the country. As per twitter, the World Bank President loved his time there! There's a big caveat that I have seen though. In the past few weeks, Ghana has been approved large debts but they are going to get huge in-house resistance on spending of it. Worryingly enough, a large chunk of the debt from the IMF was not divulged to minority parties in the government and they are not signing off on its usage; signs of an obvious inner struggle whereby the finance minister is a target by the opposition. In this sense, I'm hoping the contract actually isn't with Ghana, despite the fact they are the 2nd safest country risk in Africa (However they pay far higher interest rates around 25%) with very ambitious development initiatives surrounding MDGs set by the U.N. Ghana appears to have a perpetual problem of having their hands tied with too much indecisiveness. Ghana does have a catalyst for change and decision however, which I find interesting. The June flood in Accra caused huge damage, and is actually a yearly occurrence, with increasing damages in recent years, especially 2015.. They also have huge problems with their drainage system in Accra, and a $600 million plan to change it has been cancelled due to the government not being able to justify increasing the public debt by such a large amount. However, the catalyst brought on a very passionate speech by the Ghanaean President, right around the time that the Letter of Award was given to Intermap. Essentially, he stated that Ghana's history has been to always talk and never walk. That they needed to permanently take action toward their natural disaster prevention goals. And that they needed to begin being proactive not only as a gesture to the lives lost, but to help aid economic and social development. This is why I found it interesting the NDSF did not mention disaster risk management. I did not mean to run on this much by the way. So I'll stop here. Now, we are all waiting. One week left until earnings. And this earnings report will be the most significant in years. I'm personally looking for Q3 revenue above $3 million, with good cash balance, low AR. I do believe that due to the timing of the projects that Q4 may be better on a margin basis, even though Q3 may have more of the revenues. 3 Mil will be the highest revenue since 2013, and the InsightPro strip of that is likely to renew, so the 2014/H12015 days appear to be in the rear view. One other comment about Mark Gomes before I hand this back over. He mentioned in early September, in one of his Intermap PTT letters, that he initially expected this deal to close Q1 in 2016, and was cautious about the initial Q3 closing date set by Intermap. At the back of my mind I wonder who is stringing who along. Is Intermap stringing shareholders along? I don't think so. Is the government stringing Intermap along? Probably many fear so. But none of us can officially know. Fingers crossed that whichever government we are dealing with that all parties are heavily incentivized to get this deal closed. That's the key factor for Intermap's success afterall.
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Post by JHam on Nov 6, 2015 18:23:07 GMT
Morning fellas, I like how this thread evolved. Created an Account to jump on in. I too investigated Ghana (without knowledge of this thread) and am 50/50 on if it can be with them. The reason for the indecision is due to the mess in their ministry of finance, and because that NSDF paper they have (I've read the entire thing) doesn't at all mention disaster risk or flood risk management! However, using reference to this link: www.ghanalap.gov.gh/files/NSDF-For-Ghana.pdf , the NSDF was at the time of publication, before Cabinet which needed to approve it to then go before the President. Perhaps the milestone referred to was that it passed through Cabinet? A couple days after that opst, the World Bank President travelled to Ghana to meet the Pres and the Finance Minister, at the same time the World Bank guaranteed $400M in debt, the max they could do for the country. As per twitter, the World Bank President loved his time there! There's a big caveat that I have seen though. In the past few weeks, Ghana has been approved large debts but they are going to get huge in-house resistance on spending of it. Worryingly enough, a large chunk of the debt from the IMF was not divulged to minority parties in the government and they are not signing off on its usage; signs of an obvious inner struggle whereby the finance minister is a target by the opposition. In this sense, I'm hoping the contract actually isn't with Ghana, despite the fact they are the 2nd safest country risk in Africa (However they pay far higher interest rates around 25%) with very ambitious development initiatives surrounding MDGs set by the U.N. Ghana appears to have a perpetual problem of having their hands tied with too much indecisiveness. Ghana does have a catalyst for change and decision however, which I find interesting. The June flood in Accra caused huge damage, and is actually a yearly occurrence, with increasing damages in recent years, especially 2015.. They also have huge problems with their drainage system in Accra, and a $600 million plan to change it has been cancelled due to the government not being able to justify increasing the public debt by such a large amount. However, the catalyst brought on a very passionate speech by the Ghanaean President, right around the time that the Letter of Award was given to Intermap. Essentially, he stated that Ghana's history has been to always talk and never walk. That they needed to permanently take action toward their natural disaster prevention goals. And that they needed to begin being proactive not only as a gesture to the lives lost, but to help aid economic and social development. This is why I found it interesting the NDSF did not mention disaster risk management. I did not mean to run on this much by the way. So I'll stop here. Now, we are all waiting. One week left until earnings. And this earnings report will be the most significant in years. I'm personally looking for Q3 revenue above $3 million, with good cash balance, low AR. I do believe that due to the timing of the projects that Q4 may be better on a margin basis, even though Q3 may have more of the revenues. 3 Mil will be the highest revenue since 2013, and the InsightPro strip of that is likely to renew, so the 2014/H12015 days appear to be in the rear view. One other comment about Mark Gomes before I hand this back over. He mentioned in early September, in one of his Intermap PTT letters, that he initially expected this deal to close Q1 in 2016, and was cautious about the initial Q3 closing date set by Intermap. At the back of my mind I wonder who is stringing who along. Is Intermap stringing shareholders along? I don't think so. Is the government stringing Intermap along? Probably many fear so. But none of us can officially know. Fingers crossed that whichever government we are dealing with that all parties are heavily incentivized to get this deal closed. That's the key factor for Intermap's success afterall. mrpeanutbutter, First, welcome to the board and second, thanks for the informative post! After reading it, as you said, I almost hope that it isn't Ghana if that is the case. That is unless the President's speech woke up the cabinet and the actually walk the walk this time. I don't think Intermap is stringing anyone along. Todd Oseth has said on several occasions that the most frustrating part of the job is the countries they are working with finalizing the contracts. I guess that is the nature of the game with these P3 contracts. The one place where I think management could take some blame is that knowing this is how these things work, to not even give a semi-definitive timeline that they can't meet. When end I spoke with the CFO a few weeks ago he assured me that there was nothing at all wrong and it it was going to take more time due to the logistics of getting the additions to the contract squared away. He seemed pretty confident that it would be finalized in the coming weeks. It would be great to hear something next week before the call, but I won't be holding my breath. He also assured me that Q4 earnings will look a lot different than earnings from earlier this year (which he said on the last call as well).
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Post by mrpeanutbutter on Nov 6, 2015 19:41:10 GMT
Thanks for the welcome and I'm glad to be a part of the discussion. I don't know much about biotech other than how to trade them and more importantly, how not to. So maybe I'll venture onto some of the other threads eventually and see what else is cooking. As for now, this discussion still has tonnes of miles of road ahead. I may give Rich a call this week to pick his brain a little before the 12th. Logistics, logistics, logistics! Vague. I guess it's the way it has got to be. If I find anything out I'll report back. Have a good weekend.
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Post by furbush87 on Nov 6, 2015 22:04:27 GMT
Thanks for the welcome and I'm glad to be a part of the discussion. I don't know much about biotech other than how to trade them and more importantly, how not to. So maybe I'll venture onto some of the other threads eventually and see what else is cooking. As for now, this discussion still has tonnes of miles of road ahead. I may give Rich a call this week to pick his brain a little before the 12th. Logistics, logistics, logistics! Vague. I guess it's the way it has got to be. If I find anything out I'll report back. Have a good weekend. Thanks for joining. The only other 2 countries I think it could be is Uganda, or Namibia. Primary contracts/advisers are this, Ghana- Mappiah, Uganda-ING France, Namibia Compass I.E. All 3 could be possibles. The primary contractor is an adviser and the source of payments (all money gets funneled through them). I have spoken with and had multiple email communications with several large holders who have long histories with Rich, they both have told me that they are led to believe the deal closes/we hear an update prior to the CC. They also said they have been told there is virtually no chance of the deal falling apart (I've gotten that story myself). This tells me financing would have to be in place somehow already. One correction I'd say to you, NSDI plans were completed earlier, prior to June, it was the Land Cadastral bill that was not yet finalized. I'm not sure if you saw it or not, but the day after ITMSF said they got the letter of award, was when Ghana put out a tender for an adviser on NSDI. Not that it matters which country. I have confirmed that one of their GIS specialists traveled to Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, and Thailand in a 16 day period of time this year, that does not seem like a vacation to me. I've also noticed that their Insitepro is getting more attention and is being recognized as a superior platform for insurance. InsitePro is for flood, earthquake, and pipeline (Obama, why did you have to screw that one up for us today?) So now we wait.
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Post by mrpeanutbutter on Nov 7, 2015 0:55:05 GMT
Great information, really giving me something to look more into for the weekend. The southeast Asia option is always valid as well as we know Intermap has been working on an SDI there for quite some time, likely for some if not all of those countries you mentioned. Definitely no vacation! And about that NSDI I might have missed that; I didn't really document my research all to well and just bounced around the interweb of Ghanaen resources with various keywords, and emerged with a half clear vision of what I believe is going no there. And it's true that at the end of the day the country itself will remain private so our guessing games will never really become verified, so might be best to preserve energy for other areas of investigation.
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Post by JHam on Nov 7, 2015 0:58:46 GMT
Great information, really giving me something to look more into for the weekend. The southeast Asia option is always valid as well as we know Intermap has been working on an SDI there for quite some time, likely for some if not all of those countries you mentioned. Definitely no vacation! And about that NSDI I might have missed that; I didn't really document my research all to well and just bounced around the interweb of Ghanaen resources with various keywords, and emerged with a half clear vision of what I believe is going no there. And it's true that at the end of the day the country itself will remain private so our guessing games will never really become verified, so might be best to preserve energy for other areas of investigation. I was going to ask about the bolded. Why is that? What is the reason for being secretive about their business?
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Post by furbush87 on Nov 7, 2015 2:08:56 GMT
Great information, really giving me something to look more into for the weekend. The southeast Asia option is always valid as well as we know Intermap has been working on an SDI there for quite some time, likely for some if not all of those countries you mentioned. Definitely no vacation! And about that NSDI I might have missed that; I didn't really document my research all to well and just bounced around the interweb of Ghanaen resources with various keywords, and emerged with a half clear vision of what I believe is going no there. And it's true that at the end of the day the country itself will remain private so our guessing games will never really become verified, so might be best to preserve energy for other areas of investigation. I was going to ask about the bolded. Why is that? What is the reason for being secretive about their business? I have been led to believe that it is 2 fold, one they don't want another bidder to come in last minute, and 2 there seems to have been some kind of a gag order in place preventing them from disclosing. I know the 2nd deal is in a non christian nation that Esri previously installed NSDI and screwed it up. I think it is most likely India or Indonesia.
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Post by JHam on Nov 7, 2015 2:19:52 GMT
I was going to ask about the bolded. Why is that? What is the reason for being secretive about their business? I have been led to believe that it is 2 fold, one they don't want another bidder to come in last minute, and 2 there seems to have been some kind of a gag order in place preventing them from disclosing. I know the 2nd deal is in a non christian nation that Esri previously installed NSDI and screwed it up. I think it is most likely India or Indonesia. Wouldn't other companies already know which countries are looking for SDI and already making bids though? Not sure how ITMSF can keep it a secret for very long after they start implementing the infrastructure etc...
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Post by furbush87 on Nov 7, 2015 2:38:52 GMT
I have been led to believe that it is 2 fold, one they don't want another bidder to come in last minute, and 2 there seems to have been some kind of a gag order in place preventing them from disclosing. I know the 2nd deal is in a non christian nation that Esri previously installed NSDI and screwed it up. I think it is most likely India or Indonesia. Wouldn't other companies already know which countries are looking for SDI and already making bids though? Not sure how ITMSF can keep it a secret for very long after they start implementing the infrastructure etc... That is my thought as well, but that is the rationale that the company is using. I suppose when you are on the verge of going under, and you are about to close the only deal that can save your company, you have a right to be overly paranoid and irrational in your secrecy
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Post by mrpeanutbutter on Nov 7, 2015 5:41:02 GMT
Sorry guys I don't know how to quote your messages. The co had also told me that the main reason for the identity protection is due to it being in their national defense strategy, which sort of begs the question, if it helps the economic strength of a region of 4-5 countries, why would one country choose to run the program incognito? Getting into the area of wild speculation now
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