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Post by tradeup on Nov 11, 2014 22:37:04 GMT
Re: STEM's treatment for dry-AMD: (Tech Nation: Stem cell treatments begin to show promise, Oct 15, 2014) " Hitting right at the heart of what causes AMD" -- Martin McGlynn, president and CEO of StemCells, Inc. And my bet is they are first into P2 ... ahead of ACTC. |
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Post by tradeup on Nov 11, 2014 22:46:55 GMT
Re: STEM's treatment for dry-AMD: (Tech Nation: Stem cell treatments begin to show promise, Oct 15, 2014) " Hitting right at the heart of what causes AMD" -- Martin McGlynn, president and CEO of StemCells, Inc. And my bet is they are first into P2 ... ahead of ACTC. "... the fundamental underlying cause of Dry AMD" -Marty |
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Post by JHam on Nov 12, 2014 1:05:39 GMT
Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Well captain hindsight, it appears you are correct. Fortunate for me (and others), I'm not forced to sell my position today and I feel much better about buying STEM (@ a $75 million market cap w/o looming dilution) than I do ACTC (@ a $240 million market cap w/ looming dilution). For the record, I still own more ACTC than STEM, but at these prices I think it's hard to argue that ACTC is a better investment value than STEM.... RLC, Good post. I was going to post something similar. STEM's market cap compared to ACT's, combined with near term catalysts on a few of their programs (they have many more irons in the fire than ACT), and their cash position ($30M+ ash on hand as opposed to a line of credit) in my opinion makes STEM a no brainer over ACT at the moment. |
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Post by JHam on Nov 12, 2014 1:14:10 GMT
I picked up 5,300 in pre-market at $1.15 as well. No idea if this Benzinga acquisition claim is true, but was planning to continue to add at this level or below, anyway -- which is right around my cost-basis. Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Sure, whoever decided to trade the traditional run up before the conference call locked in a nice little profit. Congrats to those who did. But maybe in January we'll be saying that you'd have been better off buying STEM through the final 2 months of the year. The only important thing is that you aren't losing money. P.S. I agree with Jckrdu 100% about dilution being "baked in". How can it possibly be baked in when it hasn't occurred yet? That is also the problem I have with the Lincoln credit line. It is not a one time dilutive event. It is on ongoing dilutive event that makes it so hard for the pps to appreciate. |
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Post by JHam on Nov 12, 2014 1:22:26 GMT
All - Took a position in STEM today for a short term trade. With the November 20th investors event around the corner, and additional results to be announced for both the AMD and spinal cord trials, not a bad roll of the dice at $1.13, IMO. Johank - Dilution is never "priced in" until after it happens. Nice Jckrdu. In my opinion STEM is about as no-brainer as you can get for a short term trade. I want to take a stab at this one, but have most of my cash tied up in other stocks with near term catalysts and am not ready to sell. Good luck! |
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Post by jckrdu on Nov 12, 2014 1:30:33 GMT
Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Sure, whoever decided to trade the traditional run up before the conference call locked in a nice little profit. Congrats to those who did. But maybe in January we'll be saying that you'd have been better off buying STEM through the final 2 months of the year. The only important thing is that you aren't losing money. P.S. I agree with Jckrdu 100% about dilution being "baked in". How can it possibly be baked in when it hasn't occurred yet? That is also the problem I have with the Lincoln credit line. It is not a one time dilutive event. It is on ongoing dilutive event that makes it so hard for the pps to appreciate. Agree. Congrats to all ACTC holders on the recent move up prior to the ASM. IMO, that move back to $7 was based in part on expectations of something major being announced at tomorrow's ASM. I don't think that will be the case. ACTC had the conference call yesterday. The ASM will be conducted to address the items on the proxy... that's the agenda. I'm sure folks that are present will get time to ask questions of management - which is great and makes it worthwhile to attend IMO - but I'm not expecting any new major news tomorrow. Hopefully ACTC executes after the ASM and moves forward with the capital raising and uplisting on effective terms. On STEM, been doing a little more research... in their last conference call the CEO indicated that the Phase 2 Dry AMD trial would be approximately 12 months. Details of the Phase 2 trial design will be announced Nov 20th at the Investor Day. If STEM can start injecting Phase 2 Dry AMD patients in 2014 (that's what they guided previously) and run it as a 12 month trial, it'll be very clear to all that they are ahead of ACTC in terms of moving thru the trials. Efficacy (STEM versus ACTC) is another matter (where I believe ACTC has the edge based on what I've seen), but from a clinical trial execution and likely getting to market first standpoint... STEM appears to have the edge, and it could turn into a clear edge after they announce the Phase 2 trial design on 11/20. |
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Post by dayanand33 on Nov 12, 2014 1:44:10 GMT
All - Took a position in STEM today for a short term trade. With the November 20th investors event around the corner, and additional results to be announced for both the AMD and spinal cord trials, not a bad roll of the dice at $1.13, IMO. Johank - Dilution is never "priced in" until after it happens. Nice Jckrdu. In my opinion STEM is about as no-brainer as you can get for a short term trade. I want to take a stab at this one, but have most of my cash tied up in other stocks with near term catalysts and am not ready to sell. Good luck! I am not sure if there would be a 30-40% spike. I guess there may not be enough of data gathered in the last six months to generate a large interest among the investors. AMD data has to be really really good to surpass ACTC's home run (halting of the disease). The comparison with ACTC is inevitable and will be reflected in the pps after data release. That's the reason I am staying on the sidelines on this one. Having said that I am of the opinion that Stem is ahead in the amd race. Besides the recent sa article smells of market manipulation. Another reason I want to stay away because I don't understand these manipulations all that well. |
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Post by jckrdu on Nov 12, 2014 1:57:22 GMT
Nice Jckrdu. In my opinion STEM is about as no-brainer as you can get for a short term trade. I want to take a stab at this one, but have most of my cash tied up in other stocks with near term catalysts and am not ready to sell. Good luck! I am not sure if there would be a 30-40% spike. I guess there may not be enough of data gathered in the last six months to generate a large interest among the investors. AMD data has to be really really good to surpass ACTC's home run (halting of the disease). The comparison with ACTC is inevitable and will be reflected in the pps after data release. That's the reason I am staying on the sidelines on this one. Having said that I am of the opinion that Stem is ahead in the amd race. I'm not sure either Day, but the fact that it's dropped from the $2.40s to $1.10 in just 4 months, makes it an interesting trade. I've been watching it closer for the past few weeks and it looks like its finding some support, most likely in advance of the Investor Day next week. Any additional positive data, combined with a Phase 2 timeframe of close to 12 months could start bringing some folks back in. Any decent recovery back to $1.50ish (very doable) would be a great return. I'm sure we'll start to see more buying pressure as we get closer to the conference.. but overall I agree with your post as my expectations for it to run wild are low, given the data ACTC released. |
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Post by dayanand33 on Nov 12, 2014 2:49:36 GMT
Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Sure, whoever decided to trade the traditional run up before the conference call locked in a nice little profit. Congrats to those who did. But maybe in January we'll be saying that you'd have been better off buying STEM through the final 2 months of the year. The only important thing is that you aren't losing money. P.S. I agree with Jckrdu 100% about dilution being "baked in". How can it possibly be baked in when it hasn't occurred yet? That is also the problem I have with the Lincoln credit line. It is not a one time dilutive event. It is on ongoing dilutive event that makes it so hard for the pps to appreciate. As a new joiner, Ted had assured us that ACT will be moving out of Lincoln type of financing. But that promise has still not be met even after all these years. The management has a track record of either never delivering on their promise or being excruciatingly late ( remember itld Dec 2013?) We are being told that the nasdaq uplist is scheduled by end of this year. Until the management starts keeping up with its promises, it is hard to regain my trust. |
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Post by RLC on Nov 12, 2014 4:11:02 GMT
I am not sure if there would be a 30-40% spike. I guess there may not be enough of data gathered in the last six months to generate a large interest among the investors. AMD data has to be really really good to surpass ACTC's home run (halting of the disease). The comparison with ACTC is inevitable and will be reflected in the pps after data release. That's the reason I am staying on the sidelines on this one. Having said that I am of the opinion that Stem is ahead in the amd race. I'm not sure either Day, but the fact that it's dropped from the $2.40s to $1.10 in just 4 months, makes it an interesting trade. I've been watching it closer for the past few weeks and it looks like its finding some support, most likely in advance of the Investor Day next week. Any additional positive data, combined with a Phase 2 timeframe of close to 12 months could start bringing some folks back in. Any decent recovery back to $1.50ish (very doable) would be a great return. I'm sure we'll start to see more buying pressure as we get closer to the conference.. but overall I agree with your post as my expectations for it to run wild are low, given the data ACTC released. Exactly why I jumped in... The valuation just became far too attractive. I'm basing this on peer-comparison, specifically ACTC (~$240m) and BTX (~$280m)... compared to STEM'S market cap of ~$80m. |
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Post by RLC on Nov 12, 2014 4:55:35 GMT
Well captain hindsight, it appears you are correct. Fortunate for me (and others), I'm not forced to sell my position today and I feel much better about buying STEM (@ a $75 million market cap w/o looming dilution) than I do ACTC (@ a $240 million market cap w/ looming dilution). For the record, I still own more ACTC than STEM, but at these prices I think it's hard to argue that ACTC is a better investment value than STEM.... I guess "investment value" can be subjective. I haven't dipped into short/mid term trading of stocks, so for me value means long term value. If you are still Riding Lanza's Coattails, then what has changed? Lanza is still there, the science is still there. Anyway, isn't the looming dilution somewhat baked in at this point for ACT? If ACTC was a science project, which I could profit off the effectiveness and validity of their science, I would totally agree with you. Unfortunately, it's all about business (i.e. money). And this company sucks a big one at monetizing assets. They have some incredible science and one of the brightest minds in what could be the most revolutionary field in medicine (regenerative medicine). How have they not managed to squeeze any money out of their science? They've sat on what could be endless partnering deals for potential applications outside ophthalmology. For instance, they could have partnered out the platelets side of the hemangioblast program and kept the RBC potential... or with the MSC program they could have held on to the rights to key indications (e.g. Multiple Sclerosis, Alzheimer's) and partnered out the rest. Sure they would have been under unfavorable terms, but the company is really not in a position to be as greedy as they have been. Management has been about as lousy as I could possibly imagine. I was pretty much all-in on ACTC before the Lancet/Shelf news. I have sold off 90% of my ACTC and will likely plan on building a larger position after the capital raise... in hopes that PW and crew have truly regained control of the ship and are steering it in the right direction. On the dilution, as I've shared my opinion on before... I'm sure the demand has been dampened by the company's clear sign to raise capital (the A/S raise and shelf filing). However there is not enough info for this to be "priced in". The company raising $20 million at current prices (~3 million shares / 9% dilution) is far different from the company raising $100 million at current prices (~14 million shares / 40% dilution). Throw pricing terms and warrants in and the possibilities are almost endless. There's no way the capital raise is "priced in"... The company's unattractive cash position likely is though. |
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Post by tradeup on Nov 12, 2014 16:07:33 GMT
$1.20
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agendaman
New Member
Wherever Agenda Lurks, AgendaMan will Uncover it!
Posts: 10 
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Post by agendaman on Nov 12, 2014 16:36:16 GMT
I was told there might be some Agendas lurking here. Be forewarned. I am watching.
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Post by tradeup on Nov 12, 2014 18:10:34 GMT
I picked up 5,300 in pre-market at $1.15 as well. No idea if this Benzinga acquisition claim is true, but was planning to continue to add at this level or below, anyway -- which is right around my cost-basis. Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Today (real-time): ACTC -5.71% STEM +2.59% |
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Post by hophead on Nov 12, 2014 19:04:47 GMT
bought some STEM with my ACTC/Athx money i sold earlier today. Not holding long. Selling on or before the 20th of November when the investors conference is being held.
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Post by jckrdu on Nov 12, 2014 21:02:09 GMT
Nice close at high of day ($1.20) on heavy volume.
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Post by tradeup on Nov 12, 2014 21:07:39 GMT
Nice close at high of day ($1.20) on heavy volume. STEM, BCLI and CYNAF all seem to have some momentum going. NVIV took off big time today. |
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Post by hophead on Nov 13, 2014 0:29:02 GMT
Yeah. I took a small position in Nviv last month around $1. Sold it a week or two ago for no gain and woke up to see it take off this morning. Not pleased. Hopefully stem will make up for my missing the Nviv boat over the next week.
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Post by RLC on Nov 13, 2014 0:41:57 GMT
Yeah. I took a small position in Nviv last month around $1. Sold it a week or two ago for no gain and woke up to see it take off this morning. Not pleased. Hopefully stem will make up for my missing the Nviv boat over the next week. Damn just looked at the PPS action today on this. Sorry Hop... I know how that feels for sure. I think STEM will make it up for you, barring no unforeseen skeleton falling out of the closet. |
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Post by tmfbmf on Nov 13, 2014 0:53:36 GMT
I'm definitely not a fan of STEM but must admit, if ACT can command anywhere close to $100k per treatment for AMD STEM should get the same reimbursement which is a lot higher than I had assumed. Stargardt's will have the higher reimbursement as it's an orphan status indication, but AMD will be a lot higher than the $10k we had been estimating on these boards. I still don't know about their production costs but I reckon it's pretty safe to assume there's plenty of room for profit. (I'm still not a buyer bc of their other issues.) Good luck.
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