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Post by freewilly on Jul 9, 2014 19:59:22 GMT
Why has this been performing so poorly recently after all the good news?
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Post by JHam on Jul 10, 2014 19:30:03 GMT
I'm not sure this drop is STEM-specific. ATHX and CUR have similarly been going down a lot the last few days. It might just be a sector trend. STEM on the other hand could be seeing some selling because people fear dilution or assume all the good news was released and there won't be any new events for a while. I bought STEM around $1.20s and sold around 1.90 and 2.20 and 2.30. I find the current share price very reasonable and would be tempted on a slightly further dip to get back in. I think there are some exciting events occurring the last 6 months and I am not sure if STEM's cash wasn't already addressed by warrant activity........I look forward to the quarterly report in a month...... Nice job on those trades BigMike. You are right that the whole biotech sector has been on a bit of a downturn recently. I agree that STEM is a bit of a bargain at this point. Wasn't there supposed to be an update on the spinal trial? Did that happen?
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Post by jckrdu on Jul 15, 2014 12:32:37 GMT
Why has this been performing so poorly recently after all the good news? Many folks that initially bought STEM were fearful of a capital raise after they announced all the good results. Offerring was announced this morning. They're going to raise $20 MM at a price of $1.77. Warrants with an exercise price of $2.17. We'll see what the market thinks today. Will likely trade down to close to the offerring price for a bit.
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Post by jckrdu on Jul 15, 2014 12:53:50 GMT
Why has this been performing so poorly recently after all the good news? Many folks that initially bought STEM were fearful of a capital raise after they announced all the good results. Offerring was announced this morning. They're going to raise $20 MM at a price of $1.77. Warrants with an exercise price of $2.17. We'll see what the market thinks today. Will likely trade down to close to the offerring price for a bit. I'll add that this is how most biotechs fund themselves... in general its; 1)Announce good news coming out of the trials, 2) pps moves higher, 3) funding done at a decent pps (i.e. higher than where the pps started before the news which in Stem's case was the $1.30s... but lower than the peak hit on the good news which in STEM's case was the $2.40s, 4) pps retraces a bit based on the offerring price of the deal, and 5) pps eventually recovers and moves higher with the funding done. I expect that similar general pattern with ACTC.
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Post by selluwud on Jul 16, 2014 18:44:18 GMT
To test a strategy I may try with ACT, I bought STEM today at 1.78 (.01 above the offering price)in hopes of it being around the bottom before the next round of news(good news!). Down the road, if and when ACT does a capital raise, the same strategy should apply.
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Post by tradeup on Jul 16, 2014 21:54:27 GMT
We'll see what tomorrow brings.
The sell-off down to the offering price seems expected. I'll get greedy and re-enter if we see an overreaction to between $1.73-$1.63. From there I wouldn't mind averaging down to $1.50 if necessary until the next catalyst (e.g., ALZ pre-clinical data, ALZ IND, P1 spinal/AMD results, P2 AMD approval/commencement, etc.).
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Post by tradeup on Jul 16, 2014 22:21:12 GMT
Is everyone aware that STEM is in patent litigation with CUR? A settlement could also be considered a potential catalyst to add to the mix.
8:06-cv-01877-RWT Stemcells, Inc. et al v. Neuralstem, Inc. (Last filing: 05/05/2014)
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Post by selluwud on Jul 16, 2014 22:24:04 GMT
Also an employee lawsuit has been filed, I'll keep my finger on the sell button just in case.
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Post by selluwud on Jul 17, 2014 1:03:01 GMT
Man, my timing sucks. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't.
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Post by tradeup on Jul 17, 2014 1:28:03 GMT
Man, my timing sucks. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't. Without more clarification on these new allegations, it's gonna have to get really bloody for me to want to dive in.
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Post by selluwud on Jul 17, 2014 1:36:22 GMT
I've got a stop loss set up for a few pennies, so if all hell breaks loose I'll take my lumps early and go sit in the corner and cry, good thing I don't have a whole lot tied up here.
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Post by selluwud on Jul 17, 2014 13:18:58 GMT
I am going to sell on the open and get out. The market has not reacted so far and I am going to make good use of the DD here that has been shared. "The Biotech Investor" forum is about as good as it gets for up to date info.
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Post by RLC on Nov 11, 2014 5:43:18 GMT
Man, my timing sucks. Damned if you do, and damned if you don't. Without more clarification on these new allegations, it's gonna have to get really bloody for me to want to dive in. Bloody enough yet Trade? I'm thinking of opening up a position tomorrow.
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Post by JHam on Nov 11, 2014 10:11:31 GMT
Without more clarification on these new allegations, it's gonna have to get really bloody for me to want to dive in. Bloody enough yet Trade? I'm thinking of opening up a position tomorrow. Me too. I stated before that I didn't plan starting a position, but there is just too much to like about this stock right now. Especially at these current levels (regardless of how much others seem to hate it next door at the ACT forum).
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Post by RLC on Nov 11, 2014 14:02:30 GMT
Bloody enough yet Trade? I'm thinking of opening up a position tomorrow. Me too. I stated before that I didn't plan starting a position, but there is just too much to like about this stock right now. Especially at these current levels (regardless of how much others seem to hate it next door at the ACT forum). Just grabbed 3,000 shares in premarket at $1.15.... Will continue to add more if it drops further.
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Post by tradeup on Nov 11, 2014 14:12:14 GMT
Me too. I stated before that I didn't plan starting a position, but there is just too much to like about this stock right now. Especially at these current levels (regardless of how much others seem to hate it next door at the ACT forum). Just grabbed 3,000 shares in premarket at $1.15.... Will continue to add more if it drops further.I picked up 5,300 in pre-market at $1.15 as well. No idea if this Benzinga acquisition claim is true, but was planning to continue to add at this level or below, anyway -- which is right around my cost-basis.
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Post by johank on Nov 11, 2014 17:48:28 GMT
Just grabbed 3,000 shares in premarket at $1.15.... Will continue to add more if it drops further. I picked up 5,300 in pre-market at $1.15 as well. No idea if this Benzinga acquisition claim is true, but was planning to continue to add at this level or below, anyway -- which is right around my cost-basis. Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Attachments:
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Post by RLC on Nov 11, 2014 17:58:54 GMT
I picked up 5,300 in pre-market at $1.15 as well. No idea if this Benzinga acquisition claim is true, but was planning to continue to add at this level or below, anyway -- which is right around my cost-basis. Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Well captain hindsight, it appears you are correct. Fortunate for me (and others), I'm not forced to sell my position today and I feel much better about buying STEM (@ a $75 million market cap w/o looming dilution) than I do ACTC (@ a $240 million market cap w/ looming dilution). For the record, I still own more ACTC than STEM, but at these prices I think it's hard to argue that ACTC is a better investment value than STEM....
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Post by johank on Nov 11, 2014 18:57:13 GMT
Over the last five days, you would have been better off buying ACT, no? Well captain hindsight, it appears you are correct. Fortunate for me (and others), I'm not forced to sell my position today and I feel much better about buying STEM (@ a $75 million market cap w/o looming dilution) than I do ACTC (@ a $240 million market cap w/ looming dilution). For the record, I still own more ACTC than STEM, but at these prices I think it's hard to argue that ACTC is a better investment value than STEM.... I guess "investment value" can be subjective. I haven't dipped into short/mid term trading of stocks, so for me value means long term value. If you are still Riding Lanza's Coattails, then what has changed? Lanza is still there, the science is still there. Anyway, isn't the looming dilution somewhat baked in at this point for ACT?
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Post by jckrdu on Nov 11, 2014 21:17:59 GMT
All - Took a position in STEM today for a short term trade. With the November 20th investors event around the corner, and additional results to be announced for both the AMD and spinal cord trials, not a bad roll of the dice at $1.13, IMO.
Johank - Dilution is never "priced in" until after it happens.
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