horus
Junior Member
Posts: 96 
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Post by horus on Dec 9, 2014 15:44:05 GMT
All the major indexes dropped like a rock on the open which isn't helping.
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Post by actcfan on Dec 9, 2014 15:46:56 GMT
At some point I'd think the offering price might start leaking out there. If the pricing is expected in the next 2 days I would think that would be soon?
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 9, 2014 15:49:29 GMT
The first hour of trading is over and we are down 4.69%, and I am anxious to see what will transpire next. Are we under a short attack or was this just rookie hour? Most likely reason for the drop is that the pricing of the offering is getting closer to being announced. Market wants to see what the deal is priced at. The fact that the vast majority of all secondary offerings are priced at a discount to market is most likely keeping significant new buying volume away at the moment. |
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Post by deadally on Dec 9, 2014 15:55:22 GMT
Although it's routine or conventional to make peer comparison's for stocks, and AAVL looks like the best fit, I actually don't believe there are any public-company biotechs that a comparison can be made. OCAT has a multiple pipeline of cell based treatments over broad range of indications; on the verge of a JV with GE and perhaps a treatment(s) in the veterinary space, and is a front runner in the cell therapy space - certainly among small and mid cap stocks. If you compiled a side by side chart of small tech biotech's at OCAT's stage of development, and the categories were size of pipeline; number of potential and existing indications; size of markets for those indications, likelihood of near term JV, and time to market taking into account the potential for accelerated approvals, there really are no good comparisons. That's not to say that day-one of the listing the stock becomes a rocket ship, but over a reasonable period of time, these factors find themselves into the stock's market cap. What's the value of OCAT is 2Q15 when a platelet JV is announced? Does the market ignore that possibility, especially since the company has offered guidance that some form of partnerships is expected by then? I am inclined to think that STEM is closer peer of Ocata than AAVL. Both are based on Stem cell technology and targeting AMD and are nearly at the same stage of FDA trials. The intention is to not to debate on who is better (stem or ocata) but to make the case that Ocata does not appear to be undervalued when compared to its close peer. I think STEM is a poor comparison. The only thing they have in common is using cellular transplantation to treat AMD. Everything else has diverged substantially: 1) STEM has manufacturing issues, as alleged by a (former?) manager. Potentially, their CMC is in question 2) They may be pushing aggressively, but their choice to disseminate results via PR casts a pall on those results. It doesn't invalidate them, but it's hard to take STEM seriously when they don't feel obliged to publish. They gave data on 7 patients, and then they said they wanted to start phase II, which was back in June. They have offered no further guidance on the matter. 3) Ocata has its hands in other pies that have potential, eg eMSCs and platelets 4) Ocata is targeting an orphan indication and has demonstrated preliminary efficacy; I've been running into a lot of people on the boards lately that downplay the significance of this, but it can create a big advantage 5) Ocata is using differentiated RPE cells to treat the disease; STEM's product appears to be more of a hodgepodge of cells that could do whatever they like when they hit the eye. This could be an advantage, but how do they intend to monitor what the cells are doing inside the eye? At least with RPE you can look for engraftment. On STEM's side, they don't have the same CEO and SEC-related issues. But in my mind, there really is not a strong comparison here. |
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Post by Keybridge - Cult Member 003 on Dec 9, 2014 15:56:43 GMT
The first hour of trading is over and we are down 4.69%, and I am anxious to see what will transpire next. Are we under a short attack or was this just rookie hour? This looks like game playing by the market makers. I watched as the stock first gaps up on high volume, then crashes down with at times the ask lower than the bid. No stock moves like that unless there is some form of manipulation. But sometimes that's a good sign. |
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Post by HeyNow on Dec 9, 2014 15:57:38 GMT
At some point I'd think the offering price might start leaking out there. If the pricing is expected in the next 2 days I would think that would be soon? Seeing as the opening price for OCAT on the NASDAQ is probably going to be the offering price I tend to agree AF and think it will inevitably trade to that price today and tomorrow if the pricing is to occur Thursday. I don't think there is any evidence to support the claim that there are no buyers out there considering OCAT is up several % every day of late and seeing as it just bounced off that low. |
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Post by mmeyrow on Dec 9, 2014 16:02:02 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation.
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Post by Keybridge - Cult Member 003 on Dec 9, 2014 16:13:22 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. I'm not one to typically shout manipulation in a crowded movie theater, but since the announcement of the offering, and especially today, there does appear to be efforts to keep the stock price lower than it might otherwise be if simply left to market force. |
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Post by cpkrdu on Dec 9, 2014 16:14:38 GMT
The price of the offering is getting closer, majority of secondary offerings are at a discount. I believe folks are waiting to see what the "floor" is. Once on Nasdaq management has to establish credibility. Retail investors can put money at risk (I'm one of them)...institutional investors generally won't take fliers on speculative biotechs...there is a formula they have and an early stage biotech about to enter P2 with a market cap of what we have, imo, is expensive in institutional eyes...there will plenty of time for institutional investors to ride the wave up once they get comfortable with management and that will take some time.
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Post by selluwud on Dec 9, 2014 16:15:23 GMT
I sold some shares I owned in the 7.00's today at the high 6 dollar mark. Hedging for a buy back in at low 6 to sub 6. Will have to strike quick as I think the pps will recover quickly and move on once uplisted.
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 9, 2014 16:20:23 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. IMO, when the pps creeps up into the $7 ish territory, it generates more selling pressure as people are locking in a 10% plus gain from where OCAT closed ($6.21) the day before the offering was announced. IMO, locking in those gains before the pricing is announced is not a bad move. Per some of my previous posts, my thought was that OCAT would be somewhat range-bound until the offering is announced... I think that's what's playing out. We should see a lot more volume after the offering price is disclosed. IMO, there will be a very solid rush of new buyers getting into the stock, which is a good thing for current holders. |
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Post by Keybridge - Cult Member 003 on Dec 9, 2014 16:43:23 GMT
Who knows what the reason, but the stock movement looks very contrived, unusually so….lot's of shorting and efforts to keep a ceiling on the price. The trading this morning was very odd.
Alea iacta est - The die is cast.
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Post by actcfan on Dec 9, 2014 16:45:15 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. I'm not one to typically shout manipulation in a crowded movie theater, but since the announcement of the offering, and especially today, there does appear to be efforts to keep the stock price lower than it might otherwise be if simply left to market force. Do you guys mean manipulated down or up? Do underwriters ever manipulate it up trying to get a better offering price?  |
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Post by tradeup on Dec 9, 2014 16:45:47 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. How come it's never "manipulation" when it goes up? |
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Post by HeyNow on Dec 9, 2014 17:10:27 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. How come it's never "manipulation" when it goes up? Because any upward momentum can be explained away by "irrational trading" of course |
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Post by Keybridge - Cult Member 003 on Dec 9, 2014 17:14:43 GMT
I'm not one to typically shout manipulation in a crowded movie theater, but since the announcement of the offering, and especially today, there does appear to be efforts to keep the stock price lower than it might otherwise be if simply left to market force. Do you guys mean manipulated down or up? Do underwriters ever manipulate it up trying to get a better offering price? Nah, I don't think it's the underwriters - although possible - I actually think it's market makers. I've see a couple times in the past that prior to good news they pull the price down to take out the stops and pick up cheap shares. There might be some longer-term variation on this "strategy" to preserve their inventory in anticipation of the day when the stock opens at a higher price. Don't know - but walks like a duck, quacks like a duck…probably a duck? |
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Post by dayanand33 on Dec 9, 2014 17:18:17 GMT
How come it's never "manipulation" when it goes up? Because any upward momentum can be explained away by "irrational trading" of course Irrational trading can cause both upward and downward momentum and so can manipulation. It is hard to say if it was manipulation or irrational trading regardless of pps direction. |
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Post by CM kipper007 on Dec 9, 2014 17:32:20 GMT
I still think there is a good chance we finish green today. I will be pleased with that.
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shad
New Member
Posts: 36
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Post by shad on Dec 9, 2014 18:09:25 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. How come it's never "manipulation" when it goes up? On that same page, why is it always manipulation when it goes down? |
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Post by jckrdu on Dec 9, 2014 20:16:04 GMT
I find it interesting that we break 7.00 and now we are getting a dump. Just looks like manipulation. IMO, when the pps creeps up into the $7 ish territory, it generates more selling pressure as people are locking in a 10% plus gain from where OCAT closed ($6.21) the day before the offering was announced. IMO, locking in those gains before the pricing is announced is not a bad move. Per some of my previous posts, my thought was that OCAT would be somewhat range-bound until the offering is announced... I think that's what's playing out. We should see a lot more volume after the offering price is disclosed. IMO, there will be a very solid rush of new buyers getting into the stock, which is a good thing for current holders. Started re-establishing a position in OCAT today. Bought 20% of my intended position at $6.60. Will continue to add in increments if it moves below $6.60. Otherwise, will wait for pricing PR and add afterwards. |
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